000 FGUS73 KGRB 282012 ESFGRB WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097- 115-125-135-137-139-141-292000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN, WI 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR SEPT.-NOV. FOR ALL RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... THE GREEN BAY OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SERVICE AREA. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONCE A MONTH AND ARE IN ADDITION TO THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM OCTOBER 28 TO JANUARY 26 2009. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT MERRILL HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 5.6 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FLOOD STAGE SITE (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- WISCONSIN R. MERRILL 11 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.6 ROTHSCHILD 25 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.0 WIS RAPIDS 12 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 YELLOW R. BABCOCK 12 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.2 4.8 6.0 7.3 MENOMINEE R. FLORENCE 9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.3 NIAGARA 13 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.5 7.0 MCALLISTER 15 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 WOLF R. LANGLADE 11.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 SHIOCTON 11 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.6 5.7 NEW LONDON 9 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.1 4.1 LITTLE WOLF R. ROYALTON 5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 WAUPACA R. WAUPACA 6 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 ==================================================================== THE TABLE BELOW INDICATED THE CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGES DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. FOR EXAMPLE...THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT ROTHSCHILD WILL FALL TO 12.4 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. THE NUMBERS REPRESENT NORMAL SEASONAL TRENDS FOR LOW WATER LEVELS. CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FLOOD STAGE SITE (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- WISCONSIN R. MERRILL 11 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 ROTHSCHILD 25 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 WIS RAPIDS 12 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 YELLOW R. BABCOCK 12 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 MENOMONEE R. FLORENCE 9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 NIAGARA 9 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 MCALLISTER 15 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 WOLF R. LANGLADE 11.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 SHIOCTON 11 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 NEW LONDON 9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 LITTLE WOLF R. ROYALTON 5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 WAUPACA R. WAUPACA 6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE MADE. ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRB LOOK FOR AHPS. $$ HAHN