000 FXUS62 KGSP 051752 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 152 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HANNA WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE IKE WILL BE THE NEXT CONCERN AS IT MAY CROSS FLORIDA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TS HANNA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NWWD THIS AFTN...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WELL TO THE N ACRS THE CAROLINAS. SOME RAIN BANDS ARE WORKING INTO ERN SC/NC...AND GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A CHC OF SOME LGT SHWRS REACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVE. SO LTL CHANGE TO FCST FOR UPDATE. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO ACRS THE CHARLOTTE AREA...DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVING IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE TONIGHT AS HANNA/S CIRCULATION CENTER REACHES OUR LATITUDE...BUT BEFORE THE ONSET OF DOWNSLOPE SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ENUF AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE PREFERRED GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY PCPN CHANCES FOR THE FAVORED I-77 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH THE SREF MEAN QPF NOW IS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...GFS AND SREF SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FCST TRACK OF HANNA ALTHOUGH A TAD SLOWER. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH A MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF. HANNA STARTS THE DAY OVER ERN NC AND TRACKS QUICKLY UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS MOVE INTO THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS. PRECIP CHC ENDS QUICKLY SAT EVENING. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR DUE TO EARLY PRECIP AND CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH NEARLY STEADY VALUES UPSTATE AND NE GA. LOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN A DAMMING PATTERN THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW IT GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS MONDAY...THEN CHC POP NORTH AND SLIGHT CHC SOUTH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC POP WED AND THU WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TS HANNA WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE...AND MAKE LANDFALL VRY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NELY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACRS THE UPSTATE...WHERE DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS EVE AND OVRNGT KCLT WILL SEE NELY WINDS INCR TO 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT...WHILE THE OTHER SITES LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS. RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KCLT BY ARND 00Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN +RA. SOME SHWRS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHKY AS WELL OVRNGT. HANNA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO NLY/NNWLY AT ALL SITES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW ANY LOW CLDS AND PRECIP TO DISSIPATE ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NC MTNS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KCLT AND KHKY AFTER 12Z...AS HEAVIER RA AND STRONGER WNDS PUSH NE OF AREA. THE TIMING IS BASED ON NHC TRACK OF HANNA...AND GFS GUIDANCE (WHICH IS CLOSEST TO NHC). OUTLOOK...SHWRS ASSOC WITH HANNA WILL MOVE E OF AREA SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE MTNS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY WX XPCTD ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING FOR MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH/RWH NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...ARK