000
FXPQ60 PGUM 232008
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
608 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS CENTERED ABOUT 420 MILES SSE OF GUAM. OUTER
BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE GUAM
MARINE ZONE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TS NIDA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO PASS ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF GUAM
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO LAST FORECAST PACKAGE
EXCEPT NEEDED TO UPDATE ALREADY THIS MORNING TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BY TONIGHT INSTEAD OF WED. INDEED...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR SHOWERS SE OF GUAM FOR POSSIBLE FOLLOW-ON UPDATE FOR AT
LEAST THE GUAM ZONE/WATERS. BUT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE BANDS SE OF
GUAM LOOK ON RADAR...THEY COULD EASILY FALL APART LATER THIS MORNING
AS NIDA INTENSIFIES AND GETS BETTER ORGANIZED.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. GFS TRIES TO KEEP A MONSOON
TAIL OF SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS AFTER NIDA`S PASSAGE BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL IF NIDA MOVES AS PREDICTED...WITH ANY MONSOON TAIL
LIKELY FORMING WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE GRIDS LEFT AS IS...AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALLS WILL PROVIDE MAJURO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AFFECTING KOSRAE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND POHNPEI ON THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA HAS PULLED WELL WEST OF
CHUUK. LAST FEW SATELLITE FRAMES SHOW THAT NIDA HAS BEGUN TO
CONSOLIDATE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND OPTED TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED WORDING FOR CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCOMING
SHIFT SHOULD WATCH AND UPDATE PQ2 IF APPARENT MOAT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER CHUUK STATE TODAY.

CONVECTION ALONG WESTERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED
OVER KOROR THIS MORNING AND HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN ALONG TROUGH AXIS
WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORMING A TAIL INTO NIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KOROR THROUGH THE WEEK. TROUGH AXIS WILL
PULL NORTH OVER YAP LATER IN THE WEEK AS NIDA LIFTS NORTH. THIS
MAY IMPACT YAP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

THE FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NIDA AND
ASSOCIATED SWELL HAVE MOVED WELL WEST OF CHUUK. AS A RESULT...THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
OF A REISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST EXPOSURES LATER IN
THE WEEK IF TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CHST THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE