000
FXPQ60 PGUM 092047
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
647 AM CHST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHEAR LINE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CNMI NEAR AGRIHAN.
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SHEAR LINE
OVER THE FORECAST ZONES TO 8N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS OR REASONING. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF THE
SHEAR LINE FROM THE NORTH AT THE SAME TIME A TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN OR
WHERE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER JAPAN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MARIANAS...ESPECIALLY IF THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS.
ACCORDINGLY...STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY TO AS
LATE AS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INHERITED MARINE GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY REQUIRED A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS. NO CHANGES TO THE NARRATIVE. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD TO ADVISORY HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY. SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS
COULD BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING CLOUD COVER AND DECLINING
SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AND ALSO FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
MAJURO...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS.

TRADE-WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA
BUT ASCAT DATA STILL SHOWS A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROLONG THE HIGH SURF EVENT ALREADY IN
PROGRESS FOR MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. SWELL HEIGHTS FROM WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE HAVE DECREASED ABOUT 1 FOOT FROM PRIOR RUNS BUT
ALTIMETRY DATA STILL SHOWS 12 TO 14 FT SEAS EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS...SO CHOSE TO CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MAJURO
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW SETTLES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KOROR SFC OBS STILL
SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS INDICATING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR YESTERDAY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN
ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN EASTERN KOROR WATERS. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR KOROR TODAY. A
CONVERGENT TRADE-WIND ZONE EXISTS TO THE EAST OF YAP. AS THIS
ZONE DRIFTS TOWARD YAP...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REFORM THERE TONIGHT UNTIL POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR CHUUK BUT SEAS ARE DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SURF HEIGHTS TO ON CHUUK TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS