000 FXUS61 KGYX 241418 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 918 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BRIEFLY FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE RAIN SHIELD OFFSHORE (SUCH THAT IT IS) MAY END UP GRAZING THE COAST... ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND NORTHEAST. RADAR TENDS HAVE INDICATED THIS...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS AS WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AS SHOWN ON 1200 UTC SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (WHERE COOP OBSERVERS ARE REPORTING MIST). THIS WAS ADDED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE MOST INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. THESE AREAS APPEAR TO HAVE LOCALLY BROKEN THE INVERSION...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TO FILL BACK IN. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT THE HOLES TO FILL BACK IN EITHER WITH STRATUS OR DEVELOPING CUMULUS. FOR THE MOST PART...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE BREAKS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...BUT MORE THE MOST PART HIGHS TODAY WERE CAPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY ARE NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT. NAM KEEPS MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS...WHILE GFS DRYS IT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AND HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDS PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDDED DATABASE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GEM SOLUTION...WHILE BLENDING IDEAS OF NAM INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY SLOW TO PULL OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...WEAK STABLE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BEFORE SLOWLY PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LOCK IN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH THE LIGHT NNE IF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMS...AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS PERIOD. BASED ON ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE ABOVE GFS POPS...BELOW ON TEMPS...AND HAVE MADE SOME COMPROMISES SLOWLY TOWARDS NAM MOS NUMBERS. MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THIS AS WELL...WITH THE GEM KEEPING THE SYSTEM VERY PROGRESSIVE LOOKING...WHILE THE GFS CAPTURES SOME ENERGY AND SWINGS IT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN. WILL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE EURO UPON ARRIVAL. AS WFO BOX STATED...THERE COULD BE SOME OFFSHORE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE STRETCHING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS YET...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW PASSES. GENERALLY...CONDITIONS ARE MVFR/IFR...WITH SOME LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR WITH THE RISING INVERSION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BREAKS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...MVFR OVER COASTAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS...VFR OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG. LONG TERM...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR...BORDERING IFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY - MAINLY SOUTH. PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THEREAFTER FROM THE WNW. && .MARINE... IN THE NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...WINDS ARE IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND CLOSE TO IT IN THE BAYS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH AND HAVE REACHED SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN ALL WATERS. THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN THE BEST GRADIENT OCCURS THIS MORNING. WHILE WINDS MAY GET NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS ANZ154 (WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH THE TRACK THIS LOW IS TAKING)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE. AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY BACKS OFF THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS MAY GET BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS BY EVENING. THE SEAS WILL PROBABLY STAY UP AS THE LOCAL WIND WAVE IS REPLACED BY NORTHEAST SWELL. IN FACT...IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE SWELL TO SORT ITSELF OUT AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET. IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO DROP SCAS HOWEVER. GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY... WHICH WILL BE STRONG FROM THE WNW BY SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY INTO GALES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$