000 FXUS61 KGYX 100436 AAD AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1136 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE...DROPPED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE VALLEYS ARE RADIATING QUICKLY. SHOULD SEE THOSE LOCATIONS REACH MIN TEMPS SOON...AND HOVER THE REST OF THE NGT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS SO DRY IT MAY NOT EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. THE COLUMN SATURATES AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON AND A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE PHASE TAKES PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD COME ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT DOES SO. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS...NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE DAY. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET/NAM12. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE GFS NOW PICKING UP ON A TREND SEEN IN THE ECMWF YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND STALL AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS NOW BRINGING THIS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BRUSH SOUTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE PASSED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AND HAVE SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHTS ECMWF AS FAR AS TRACK AND QPF. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MID COAST MAINE. WITH THIS TREND ALSO LOOKING FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPS..ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A 5 TO 7 DEGREE JUMP. EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN IT'S WAKE. THIS WILL ALSO SWING A TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS EARLY THEN CLEARING. ANY LINGERING SNOW IN MIDCOAST AREAS OF MAINE SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING FOR VERY COLD HIGH TEMPS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH. WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT LOOKING FOR A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP. MAY SEE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN MAINE. ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL LIKELY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SWLY FETCH MAY BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ LEGRO