000
FXHW60 PHFO 230856 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2008

.UPDATE...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS IS ABOUT TO PASS
EAST OF KAUAI. ALSO...POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE GRIDS STATEWIDE
WHILE MAINTAINING THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS BEGUN MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN RETURNING LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN WATERS AND CHANNELS...SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLIES THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 830 PM...
THE UPPER LOW CHIEFLY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS BEGUN MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST OVER OAHU OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES AT BELLOWS AFS AND AROUND 3.5 INCHES AT
WILSON TUNNEL. THE OTHER ISLANDS ALSO RECEIVED RAINFALL...BUT MAINLY
LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALMOST 2
INCHES RECORDED AT THE MOLOKAI AIRPORT. THERE IS STILL THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM
HST.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE AWAY TO THE
WEST...TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. WE EXPECT THE EASTERN
CHANNELS AND WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED FIRST LATER TONIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH STRENGTH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS THAT
MORE STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GOVERNING HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS. BY THANKSGIVING DAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY PASS
A GOOD DISTANCE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS NEXT EVENT...AND
HOW SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THE FRONT WILL PUSH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY FOR ALL ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG
ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
AND FOR WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

POWELL