000 FXHW60 PHFO 021924 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 924 AM HST Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will strengthen today, becoming breezy Friday through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical windward slopes, with an increase in showers expected this weekend through the first half of next week as a disturbance aloft moves over the state. && .DISCUSSION... Stable easterly trade wind flow remains over the islands this morning with a weak trough northwest of Kauai and a 1030 mb surface high to the far northeast. Satellite and radar imagery continue to show partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated windward showers across the islands, with scattered showery clouds upstream of the state. Expect trades to strengthen today as the trough weakens further and high pressure builds over the region. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but with no significant areas of moisture upstream of the islands and relatively shallow temperature inversions, rain totals will remain limited today. Trade wind speeds are forecast to increase into the breezy to locally windy range across the islands on Friday, then continue through the weekend as high pressure strengthens and settles in far northeast of the state. Expect the strongest winds over the windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island. Guidance continues to show an upper-level low stalling to the west of Kauai over the weekend, then slowly moving across the state early next week. As this happens, expect a boost in to our trade wind showers, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, with a few brief downpours possible through the first half of next week. Some showers could drift over into leeward areas as well, due to the stronger winds. Details are still uncertain, but windward and mauka areas could become quite showery through early next week, especially across the western end of the state where the best instability exists. Some models also hint at an outside chance for some isolated thunderstorms during this time period. Expect a return to a more typical moderate to breezy trade wind pattern by Wednesday, as the upper low moves away from the state and high pressure weakens to the north. && .AVIATION... Easterly trades will strengthen to become breezy later today as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Clouds and brief light showers will continue to favor windward and mauka locations. VFR conditions will generally prevail, except for isolated areas of MVFR conditions in any heavier showers that may develop. Better chance for MVFR conditions will be during the overnight hours when shower activity is expected to become more scattered in coverage, with the best chances around windward Big Island. With the increasing wind speeds across the state today, AIRMET Tango may be needed by later this morning or afternoon for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed late tonight for windward portions of a few islands as cloud and shower coverage increases. AMD NOT SKED in for Midway due to missing wind speed and direction. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will gradually return today as a high pressure far northeast of the state shifts south and a weak trough northwest of the state moves farther west. Trades will strengthen to fresh to locally strong Friday and persist into early next week as another high builds north of the state and remains nearly stationary. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through early Monday morning. Additional waters will likely be added to the SCA in the next day or so as trade winds continue to strengthen and expand in coverage. Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through Friday. A small, long period northwest swell is expected to fill in Friday night and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along north and west facing shores. Another small, long period northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small background south swells will continue into Saturday, providing tiny surf for south facing shores. A small, long period south swell may arrive Sunday providing a boost in surf along south facing shores into early next week. Surf along east facing shores will gradually become rough and choppy today through the weekend as trades return. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...TS AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Vaughan