000 AXHW70 PHFO 051947 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-062200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 945 AM HST THU NOV 5 2009 ...WET SEASON BEGINS WITH DROUGHT PERSISTING IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND... SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST MONTH OF THE WET SEASON BROUGHT ENHANCED RAINFALL TO THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL IN THE EAST HALF OCCURRED MAINLY ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN LEEWARD AREAS. THIS RESULTED IN A SPREADING OF EXTREME DROUGHT...OR D3 CATEGORY CONDITIONS IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...FROM THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT INTO THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE BIG ISLAND. EXTREME DROUGHT ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE KAU DISTRICT PERSISTED BUT HAS EASED TO D1 CONDITIONS...OR MODERATE DROUGHT...OVER THE MID-LEVEL SLOPES. OVER THE REST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...OR D2 CATEGORY...PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH KONA...SOUTH KONA AND NORTHERN KAU DISTRICTS. SEVERE DROUGHT ALSO CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND WEST MAUI AND OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MOLOKAI AND ALL OF LANAI REMAIN UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT. OAHU AND KAUAI HAVE SOME DRIER THAN NORMAL AREAS ALONG THE LEEWARD SLOPES BUT DO NOT HAVE ANY AREAS UNDER A DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. NO DROUGHT AREAS EXIST. OAHU. NO CHANGES SINCE OCTOBER 8. THERE ARE NO EXISTING DROUGHT AREAS. WATER LEVELS IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR REMAIN ABOVE DROUGHT LEVELS. HOWEVER...A MANDATORY 20 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER USE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A PRECAUTION. MOLOKAI. NO CHANGES SINCE OCTOBER 8. WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR IN WEST MOLOKAI REMAIN LOW AND A MANDATORY 20 PERCENT REDUCTION IN IRRIGATION WATER USE REMAINS IN EFFECT. LANAI. NO CHANGES SINCE OCTOBER 8. PASTURE AND OTHER VEGETATION CONDITIONS REMAIN IN A DEGRADED STATE. MAUI. NO CHANGES SINCE OCTOBER 8. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY CONTINUES TO REQUEST A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY UPCOUNTRY RESIDENTS...AND A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL MAUI RESIDENTS. BIG ISLAND. LOWER ELEVATION PASTURES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE IN POOR CONDITION. MID-SLOPE PASTURES IN THE KAU DISTRICT HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO SOME RECENT RAINFALL. VEGETATION ALSO REMAINS VERY DRY IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE ISLAND. BRUSH FIRE DANGER RATINGS REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME IN THE DROUGHT AREAS IN THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...EL NINO CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2009-2010. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON OCTOBER 15 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT INDICATE PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FALL SEASON. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEW WET SEASON...THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IN COMPARISON TO THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN THE LONG TERM...THE PRESENCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS MEANS THAT PROBABILITIES FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 2009-2010 WINTER SEASON. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 19. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 28-DAY AVERAGES INDICATE MOST MONITORED STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL FLOW LEVELS. THREE SITES IN CENTRAL AND WEST OAHU...TWO MAUI SITES AND THREE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SITES INDICATE BELOW NORMAL FLOW CONDITIONS. SOME SEASONAL INCREASES IN OVERALL FLOW LEVELS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO MONTHS WITHIN THE NEW WET SEASON. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON DECEMBER 3 2009 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/. U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.HAWAIIDROUGHT.COM USGS HAWAII RECENT CONDITIONS... HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$