000 FXUS64 KHGX 051425 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 925 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A CU FIELD LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/ DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT PATTERN WE ARE IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY A WARM FRONT OF SORTS MOVES BACK NORTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES. A S/W SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE I WOULDN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION UNTIL TUESDAY. OF COURSE BY THIS TIME TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIVERGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE HANDLING OF IKE. ATTM HAVE FAVORED THE GFS BUT NEITHER HAS DONE THAT WELL WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE LAST 10 DAYS. WITH THE GFS RECURVING IKE OVER FL THIS SHOULD RETURN SETX TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE PATTERN OF DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS HAS BEEN PAINTING IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC COOL FRONT FOR NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY THE 12/13TH. AM NOT BITING YET ON THIS SO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS ARE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 45 MARINE... SFC RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS TODAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE E AND THEN SE LATE SUNDAY. LOW SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WITH MORE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 39 AVIATION... OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 78 90 78 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43