000 FXUS64 KHGX 100521 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1121 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM KCXO SOUTH TO THE COAST AT 05Z. THE MODELS DEVELOP RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS OVER ALL SITES BY 09Z. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT KCLL AND KUTS...KCXO AND KIAH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...KHOU...KSGR AND THE COASTAL SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE INSTABILITY OFF THE COAST. GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP FOR MOST SITES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SFC DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. CRP 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING UP TO 650 MB WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.1 INCHES. A VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NAM12 NOW TAKES THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND FOCUSES MORE OF THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH. THAT SAID...THE NAM HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF. A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BUT NOTHING OF REAL CONSEQUENCE. FEEL THUNDER THREAT IS VERY LOW AS INSTABILITY IS UNIMPRESSIVE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 60 38 55 34 / 80 60 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 50 62 43 56 36 / 80 80 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 54 62 49 55 43 / 60 80 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40