000 FXUS64 KHUN 100840 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 240 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS XPCTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TODAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS EARLY MORNING...AS AN UPPER SHRTWV PUSHES EWD THROUGH SRN TX. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS XPCTED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION. WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NOT XPCTED TO CLIMB MUCH PAST 50F...IF AT ALL. SCT SHOWERS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA FROM W TO E LATER TODAY WITH THE ONCOMING ENERGY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS STILL XPCTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS XPCTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MOISTURE MAY IN FACT INTERACT WITH THE PASSING UPPER SHRTWV AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE ENE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA HEADING TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. NO ACCUM IS XPCTED GIVEN THE FACT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SAT...AS THE ONCOMING SFC HIGH BEGINS TO USHER MOD POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CLEARING TREND HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH OVERALL TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW SEASONAL TRENDS UNDER A BUILDING WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. UNFORTUNATELY THE QUIET WX DOES NOT LOOK TO CONTINUE MUCH PAST MON AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A STRONG RETURN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE E OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES...AS EMBEDDED SHRTWVS BEGIN TO TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN HEADING INTO MID WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPS. ONE KEY POINT WORTH NOTING IS THE MOD POLAR AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUE WITH THE APPROACHING SHOWERS. LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE AIR MASS RECOVERING ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY INITIAL PRECIP AS LIQUID...ALTHOUGH THIS TREND COULD CHANGE PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GFS IS THEN POINTING AT SOME FAIRLY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THE SRN PLAINS WED...BEFORE TRANSLATING ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION THU. THIS WX SCENARIO WOULD NOT ONLY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA...BUT THE PROB FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU AS THIS NEW ENERGY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE SE REGION. 09 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY AFTN AS HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AL THICKEN AND LOWER. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR CRITERIA BY 20-21Z FRIDAY AFTN. -RA OR SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND IMPACTS... WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER 01-03Z. BCC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 51 30 38 21 40 / 40 30 10 0 0 SHOALS 51 30 37 19 40 / 40 20 10 0 0 VINEMONT 49 30 36 20 39 / 40 30 10 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 49 29 35 18 38 / 40 30 10 0 0 ALBERTVILLE 50 32 36 19 39 / 30 30 10 0 0 FORT PAYNE 49 31 36 18 40 / 30 30 10 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.