000 FXUS63 KICT 301050 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 550 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS: KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. KED && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. TDY-TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS LOOK TO LINGER OR EXPAND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN THE 900-800MB LAYER. MEANWHILE...LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS A MODEST SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO WHICH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS INFLUENCES FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. SUN-MON WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE MOIST AXIS ZONE DUE TO UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. EXTENDED: TUE-FRI A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. MEANWHILE GUSTAV REMNANTS COULD ALSO BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER OVER EASTERN KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AND FEEL THAT ECMWF IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR NORTH. NONE THE LESS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. JAKUB AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...WEAK 925-800MB CONVERGENCE ZONE ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ALONG WITH MOISTURE RETURN/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THINKING THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO INSERTED CB FOR MOST TAF SITES. LEFT IT OUT OF SLN TAF...AS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THERE. ALL IN ALL...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TOOK OUT PREVIOUS MENTION OF 5SM BR IN THE CNU TAF SINCE DRIER LOW-LEVELS AND INCREASED CLOUDS MAY SQUELCH ANY FOG POTENTIAL. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD VERY WELL EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN TAFS. KLEINSASSER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 88 68 89 69 / 30 20 10 10 HUTCHINSON 88 68 90 70 / 20 20 10 10 NEWTON 88 67 88 70 / 20 20 10 10 ELDORADO 88 67 88 69 / 30 20 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 89 70 / 30 20 10 10 RUSSELL 88 66 90 68 / 20 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 88 67 90 68 / 20 20 10 10 SALINA 88 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 88 67 89 70 / 20 20 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 88 66 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 CHANUTE 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 88 65 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$