000 FXUS63 KICT 100529 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1129 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN HAZARDS: LINGERING IFR/MVFR IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF POLAR FRONT...THEN MVFR CIGS BEHIND POLAR FRONT FRIDAY. POLAR FRONT SHOULD REACH RSL AND SLN BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AND WILL BE CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT HUT/ICT/CNU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALL DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ABOUT A 4 OR 5 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT BASED ON SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION LATE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER WESTERN KS (POSSIBLY AFFECTING RSL) LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTION SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN HAZARDS: SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS/CIGS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING...AND OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOW SWATH EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN A COUPLE HOURS OF IFR IN SNOW AT ICT TERMINAL EARLY THIS EVE WITH 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR (POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR) TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT POLAR FRONT...WHILE CENTRAL KS HAS MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. POLAR FRONT WILL COME THRU DURING EARLY AM HOURS FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT (GUSTS ~25 KT) ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME. JMC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN HOW COLD TO GO FOR THE WEEKEND AND PRECIP TYPE/CHANCES FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SYNOPSIS: CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL MN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS EVENING-FRI: PRECIP HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OK-KS BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA OF PRECIP SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 600-700MB LAYER. LOOK FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE OK-KS BORDER THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MADE SOME PHONE CALLS AND IN THE HEAVIER SNOW WE COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCE TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE KS-OK LINE TO PICK-UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE POLAR AIRMASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ITS SOUTHWARD PLUNGE ON FRI. BY FRI MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED GENERALLY BE ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE WITH IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL REALLY LIMIT HIGHS ON FRI WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. SAT-SUN: AS ADVERTISED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MAIN THEME FOR THESE PERIODS WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THIS AREA. WITH EACH FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUED WE CONTINUE TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPS AND WITH THIS UPDATE LOWS ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WERE LOWERED THE MOST. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL KS BOTH NIGHTS. IF WE HAD SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND THERE IS NO DOUBT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT SUB ZERO LOWS. ANOTHER ONE OF THE CHANGES MADE WAS TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STAYING WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUN MORNING OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BY SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP BY SUN AFTERNOON. SUN NIGHT-MON: THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PRECIP...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH TYPE. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL CONSENSUS THAT CLOUD ICE COULD BE LACKING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WARM MON MORNING WHICH WOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE STILL NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM AND WOULD LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. TUE-THU: CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THESE DAYS WILL PAN OUT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SWINGING THROUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PANNING OUT. FIRE WEATHER... THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI WITH THE VERY COLD AIR REMAINING THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL KEEP RH'S UNDER CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRI AND WILL GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR SAT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. LAWSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 27 33 11 26 / 50 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 25 31 10 24 / 10 0 10 10 NEWTON 25 30 11 25 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 27 32 12 26 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 29 38 15 27 / 100 0 0 0 RUSSELL 21 26 8 20 / 0 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 23 28 10 21 / 10 10 10 10 SALINA 24 28 9 21 / 0 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 25 30 10 23 / 10 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 34 41 16 29 / 80 0 0 0 CHANUTE 30 34 10 26 / 70 0 0 0 IOLA 29 32 9 25 / 40 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 33 38 14 27 / 80 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$