000 FGUS73 KICT 271758 ESFICT KSC001-009-015-017-021-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159- 167-173-191-205-272358- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES ENABLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID JANUARY 27 2012 - APRIL 26 2012 LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ARKANSAS RIVER GREAT BEND 12.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.7 HUTCHINSON 8.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.9 HAVEN 10.0 2.6 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.5 DERBY 12.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.5 4.9 6.1 9.1 MULVANE 16.5 7.1 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.5 10.7 13.6 OXFORD 17.0 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.3 12.7 13.4 16.0 ARKANSAS CITY 17.0 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.8 14.1 15.1 17.9 WALNUT CREEK ALBERT 24.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 5.2 6.0 7.2 11.9 14.1 COW CREEK LYONS 18.0 4.5 5.8 7.2 7.8 9.5 11.5 14.0 15.4 16.8 LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER ALTA MILLS 22.0 0.4 3.0 5.2 6.8 8.8 10.7 13.5 16.6 22.4 HALSTEAD 25.0 6.2 8.0 9.4 10.6 12.2 13.5 15.6 17.9 22.1 SEDGWICK 22.0 3.2 4.4 5.8 7.1 7.8 9.8 10.9 13.4 20.0 COWSKIN CREEK AT 119TH ST 18.0 7.2 7.2 8.7 10.2 11.0 11.9 13.2 14.2 15.3 SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER MURDOCK 8.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.4 NINNESCAH RIVER PECK 17.0 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.7 BELLE PLAINE 23.0 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 13.6 14.7 16.2 18.1 WHITEWATER RIVER TOWANDA 22.0 3.4 5.5 6.3 7.6 8.9 10.0 11.7 14.8 18.4 AUGUSTA 21.0 5.2 6.5 7.0 8.1 9.2 10.2 11.4 14.1 16.9 WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER EL DORADO 21.0 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.4 12.2 15.1 WALNUT RIVER EL DORADO 19.0 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.2 5.8 7.5 9.3 AUGUSTA 23.0 6.4 6.8 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.2 12.2 16.1 19.1 WINFIELD 18.0 3.7 5.1 6.6 8.2 9.7 10.9 12.4 16.3 17.6 ARKANSAS CITY 18.0 4.2 5.3 7.2 8.0 9.3 10.8 12.8 14.1 16.2 CHIKASKIA RIVER CORBIN 10.0 2.2 4.2 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.0 9.1 10.3 11.6 FALL RIVER FREDONIA 17.0 4.8 6.3 7.7 8.2 9.4 10.3 11.5 13.9 19.0 VERDIGRIS RIVER ALTOONA 19.0 4.0 6.1 7.6 8.2 9.0 10.5 12.6 15.4 19.0 INDEPENDENCE 30.0 5.6 10.5 12.8 13.9 15.9 17.8 22.0 25.5 33.0 COFFEYVILLE 18.0 1.8 3.4 4.3 4.8 6.1 7.2 9.3 12.0 16.7 COTTONWOOD RIVER FLORENCE 22.0 4.1 5.0 6.5 8.2 9.6 10.6 15.3 18.2 24.4 COTT.WOOD F. 9.0 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.6 8.8 PLYMOUTH 32.0 6.9 7.7 10.5 11.6 13.7 15.1 20.1 24.6 32.4 NEOSHO RIVER IOLA 15.0 7.5 8.3 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.6 11.4 14.7 CHANUTE 23.0 8.8 10.6 11.6 12.8 13.6 14.8 16.8 18.9 23.1 ERIE 29.0 12.2 14.8 16.5 17.4 18.0 20.0 21.8 24.5 34.2 PARSONS 21.0 8.9 11.1 12.1 13.4 14.7 16.7 20.2 21.9 25.9 OSWEGO 17.0 7.8 9.0 9.5 10.2 10.8 11.8 14.8 17.3 20.7 SALINE RIVER RUSSELL 18.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.9 10.6 SMOKY HILL RIVER BUNKER HILL 20.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.3 4.4 5.1 5.8 7.3 8.8 ELLSWORTH 20.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.8 6.6 7.7 11.2 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ICT FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$