000 FXUS62 KILM 291016 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 616 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move eastward along the Gulf Coast today, then off the Florida east coast tonight. This will bring a warming trend with 80 degree temperatures expected inland Sunday through Tuesday. Shower chances will arrive Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that should sweep off the coast Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An impressive shortwave moved across the eastern Carolinas overnight. In its wake, an upper ridge extending through the U.S. and Canadian Plains will move eastward while supporting surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast. This will ensure dry offshore winds today and tonight. The coldest 850 mb temps (+1 to +3C) behind last night's shortwave are moving overhead pretty much now. Warm advection will begin later this morning and with full sunshine highs are expected to reach the lower 70s inland and upper 60s along the beaches. Wind gusts during the deepest mixing this afternoon could reach 25 mph, especially across southeast North Carolina. A light southwest breeze is expected tonight as the center of the high moves off the Florida east coast. Lows of 45-50 are expected, warmest on the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Gorgeous weekend up ahead with temperatures on the rise. An upper ridge in the western GOMEX amplifies and moves eastward, which will contribute to heights rising aloft. Meanwhile, offshore high pressure will slowly move further away from the eastern seaboard, but will still help to provide plenty of subsidence. Highs Saturday shoot up well into the mid-to-upper 70s inland, lower 70s at the coast. Temperatures continue to increase into the lower 80s inland by Sunday (mid 70s at the coast). This will provide a decent seabreeze, given the thermal gradient between land and water. Climatologically speaking, these high temperatures look more like mid-May than they do late March/early April. Lows Saturday night in the low-to-mid 50s. Lows Sunday night near 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very unseasonably warm weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with some high temperatures inland approaching the mid 80s. Ironically enough, looks like the high temperature records are safe from being tied or broken. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s. Next rain chances start to perk up Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement on the frontal passage, which appears to enter the local forecast area by Wednesday morning/afternoon, and then push offshore by late Wednesday evening. Even so, there are a few timing differences, particularly as the front approaches the coast, which is the norm around here. Regardless, the trends show increasing confidence in some scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening to late Wednesday. Will pay attention to these trends over the next few days. Clouds and rain suppress temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Cold air advection turns on after the frontal passage Wednesday night, with lows dipping into the mid 40s. Highs Thursday somewhere in the mid 60s as the forecast dries out. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected over the coming 24 hours. Moderate westerly winds may gust to 20 kt this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Deepening low pressure continues to move away from the Mid Atlantic coast while high pressure crawls eastward along the Gulf Coast. This will place the Carolinas within a zone of moderate offshore winds today. Directions this morning are generally northerly but should back around to the west this afternoon and then southwest tonight as the center of the high moves off the Florida east coast. The Small Craft Advisory will come down with this morning's forecast package as even gusts should remain below 25 knots during the modest wind surge early this morning. There should be a period with light winds (10 knots or less) late this morning, however wind speeds should increase toward 15 knots again during the afternoon hours. Saturday through Tuesday...WSW winds early Saturday become more purely SW in the afternoon. Winds increase in speed at this point, and gusts appear to peak above 25kts more often in this forecast cycle than what was previously shown. Local wind probabilistic guidance shows very stout chances of more of the same, but with this being a pretty new idea, I elected to not issue a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Need to see more consistency in the guidance, as most deterministic models haven't come around to the wind thresholds yet. If we need to issue an advisory in future forecast cycles, it would probably be pretty brief, say, Saturday and Saturday night. From there, the southwesterly wind trend locks in through Tuesday, with sustained winds varying a bit from 10-15kts to up to 20kts at times. These winds escalate more robustly by late Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. Seas remain at mostly 3- 4ft, with a few 5ft waves possible 20nm from shore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/IGB