000
FXUS61 KILN 301043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS
FOE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED FROM NR ERI-
PKB-HTS. MODELS AGREE IN LINGERING SFC AND H8 CONVERGENCE NR THE
OH RIVER ALONG WITH HIGHER RH THIS AFTN. ADDED 20 POPS ALONG THE
EXTREME SRN COUNTIES OF THE FA.

TEMPS GOT REALLY WARM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAD FROPA OVERNIGHT
AND SOME OF THE AREA GOT PCPN...FEEL THAT THE AREA IS GETTING
PRETTY DRY. LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DRIVES A COOL DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE OVERDONE...SO WENT WITH
A GFS/NGM SPLIT ON THE MIN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUN INTO MON AND SHOULD SEE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. LEANED TOWARDS THE WARNER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUN
AND MON. WENT A BLEND FOR THE SUN NGT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. AND KEEPING ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
TOWARD TUES AND WEDS AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BRINGING
IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
BY TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF KEEPING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...SO DID NOT
INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX
CU EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS N AND NE OF KCMH WILL
LIFT TO A SC DECK THAT QUICKLY BREAKS UP WITH THE RISING SUN.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EAST TODAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE TO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST OR IN CURRENT TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...FRANKS