000 FXUS61 KILN 250245 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CDFNT IN WRN INDIANA IS PUSHING AN AREA OF SHRA INTO THE WRN FA ATTM. BEST LIFT WILL WORK TO THE NW OF THE FA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT ALONG FRONT FOR SCT SHRA ALL THE WAY INTO NRN KY. KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGH CHC POPS IN THE NW...TAPERING DOWN TO 30 POP IN THE SE. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP THE THE E WHERE TD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DUE TO INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. SNOW WILL MIX IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY SLIPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRI BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING LOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE PRESENT TO NOT ALLOW MUCH SUN TO LESSEN THE TEMPERATURE FALLS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERTOP OF CWA BY 12Z SAT AND A WAA PATTERN SETS UP...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS HIGHS. PTYPE EARLY FRIDAY IS IN QUESTION...HAVE MADE IT SIMPLE AND PUT A CHANCE OF RW/SW. IF RW IS NOT PREDOMINANT WX TYPE LIKE SUSPECTED...THE CHANCE FOR PL WILL BE INCREASED AS WELL AS SW. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPARENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WARM TEMPS A LITTLE EACH DAY. CONVERSELY...THE WARMER AIR WILL BE MORE MOIST AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. THIS IS NOT LIKELY AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. WILL RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE FOR SAT NIGHT LOWS. REGARDING PRECIP...LEFTOVER SHOWERS FRI MORNING WILL QUICKLY END BY NOON...AND THE NEXT CHANCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 12/0Z AND 6/18Z GFS RUNS ARE IN OPPOSITION WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING MASS FIELDS THIS FAR OUT. 12/0Z RUNS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND THIS IS THE WAY TO TREND FORECAST TODAY. MODELLERS ARE SUGGESTING AN ODD BLEND NEARING THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FCST. UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OHVLY IS SUGGESTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS THOUGHT PROCESS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CIGS HEIGHTS ROSE FROM THE S AND E LATE THIS AFTN. THIS WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...ONLY MUCH SOONER...CLOSER TO 16-18Z. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE ILN AND DAY. BOTH ARE ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD GO VFR BY 02Z. CIGS ACROSS INDIANA ARE VFR...SO IT LOOKS THE TAFS WILL SEE VFR CIGS UNTIL MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF CDFNT PUSH INTO WRN TAFS AROUND 09Z. H9 MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND FNT WILL PUSH INTO ALL TAFS BY 12Z. BEST H5 DYNAMICS LIFT NE ACRS NW OH INTO MI 12Z-18Z. THIS WILL TAKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN NW OF THE TAFS. LIMITED ANY MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA TO A TEMPO AND ONLY ACRS THE NRN TAFS. IN CVG/LUK WENT WITH JUST A VCSH. MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TAFS POST FRONTAL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST A LITTLE AFT 18Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY...AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE... THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...SITES