000 FXUS61 KILN 100608 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 108 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT SNOW FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THOUGH WE ARE UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION AT 800 MB. THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TRAVELS THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. HAVE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE...DUE TO THE MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...WITH LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THEREFORE...MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITH EACH SET OF MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECASTED AN EVEN BLEND OF MODEL QPF WITH HPC QPF...YIELDING ONE TWO TWO TENTHS OF QPF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND FALLING SURFACE TEMPS...WILL CAUSE INCREASING SNOW RATIOS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...QPF IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...AND IF SNOW PRODUCTION BECOMES MORE EFFICIENT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING. ACROSS THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND TEMPS WILL PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CAA CONTINUING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH ABOVE 20 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH WINDS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS COULD REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AND END EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIES THE AREA OUT. KEPT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE. ACROSS THE NORTH...HAVE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE ZONES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH CORE OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MODERATION IN TEMPS BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WE WILL GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PCPN THROUGH THE NIGHT. PCPN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO BE SNOW AND WITH TIMING OF BEST PCPN EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WE COULD PICK UP SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF SLOWER TRENDS CONTINUE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN AREA OF VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE H5 L/W TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID LEVELS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW MAY START JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AFTER NOON WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING FROM 2-6Z IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WINDS WILL KICK UP TOWARDS 20KT SUSTAINED AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHILE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT IN THE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS COMBINATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND CIGS UNDER 1KFT WITH VSBY UNDER 2SM WILL BE COMMON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...FRANKS