000
FXUS63 KIWX 301045
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SPOTTY MVFR/LIFR THRU
13Z...BUT NO AT THE TWO MAIN TAFS SITES WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND THRU THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AFTER 00-01Z...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER TO BE FOUND AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND OTHER
THAN SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS STILL CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH WARM 850 MB TEMPS AND DRY GROUND
ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM(LABOR DAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

STRONG RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ALLOWS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE LOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
GROWING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY DUE TO THE
TROPICALS MAKING LANDFALL OR APPROACHING THE CONUS...AND THEIR
INTERACTION WITH POSSIBLE FRONT/TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL BE FOUND THRU THE
PERIOD...NEARING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LABOR DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...VERY WARM H850 TEMPS...AND WITH DRY/BAKED SOILS ALL WILL
ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM HOLIDAY AND START TO EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
TEMPS PUSHING NEAR OR ABOVE 90 EACH DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONFIDENCE STARTS TO LESSEN DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE HUGE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE INTERACTION OF GUSTAV AND THE
TROUGH/FRONT TIMING INTO THE SOUTHER GREAT LAKES WILL PLAY
OUT...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGES INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD
INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...POSSIBLE THAT FRONT MAY REACH THE REGION AND
COOL TEMPS SOME...BUT NOT A COMPLETE CLEAR SIGNAL HERE...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY NO CLEAR SIGNAL THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL FALL
EVEN IF THE TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT AGAIN WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEALING WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AS THEY COME
ONSHORE AND GO EXTRA-TROPICAL WE MAY FINALLY GET SOME MUCH NEEDED
LIQUID RELIEF LATE NEXT WEEK...IF NOT FROM GUSTAV THEN MAYBE A
POSSIBLE MODERATE/STRONG SHRTWV FEATURE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EURO JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...SCHOTT
AVIATION...SCHOTT