000 FXUS64 KJAN 100205 AAA AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 805 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .UPDATE...A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE EAST TO AROUND 40 DOWN SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT WX TRENDS. /27/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FRIDAY MORNING TO 1.5 TO 5K FEET AS PATCHY RAIN BREAKS OUT. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING AREAWIDE. OTHERWISE...NLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NELY TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME W TO NW FRIDAY. /22/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVED THROUGH SOME SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS. GFS SEEMED A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING POPS IN AS EARLY AS 12Z FRIDAY. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE HOWEVER UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY MID-MORNING. AS THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BESIDES THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE DELTA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. RAINS ON FRIDAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE THE ARCTIC SYSTEM MOVES IN. SATURDAY...THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND SOME VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE MAKING TEMPERATURES SEEM EVEN COOLER THAN THEY ARE IN REALITY. CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY MORNING DO NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND SO TEMPS WILL NOT FALL AS FAR AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY. GFS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF -5.6C OVER THE AREA AND 850MB TEMPS OF -2.1C. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WERE LOWERED BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE BASED ON WHAT FUTURE MODELS SHOW. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE VERY CHILLY LOW 20S. /10/ LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE EQUALLY AS CHILLY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH IN TENNESSEE. LOWS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NEW WEEK WILL COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE ARKLAMISS. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WE CAN WARM SOME IN THE MORNING SO THAT WINTRY PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. IN ADDITION...WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE GFS AND EURO GOING INTO THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EURO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE OPEN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SO WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD SEE AFTN HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S TO 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. /17/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 38 53 36 42 / 6 78 21 5 MERIDIAN 36 54 36 44 / 5 56 28 6 VICKSBURG 37 53 35 41 / 10 76 14 5 HATTIESBURG 40 58 41 49 / 5 58 31 4 NATCHEZ 39 53 36 44 / 19 84 17 5 GREENVILLE 37 52 32 38 / 7 52 12 5 GREENWOOD 35 54 33 38 / 7 48 16 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 27/22/10/17