000
FXUS64 KJAN 300902
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY...BUT THE GFS DOES INDICATE A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DECENT MOISTURE MAY KICK OFF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM IN THE HWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY THE OUTER
BANDS MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HORUS.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SO DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY TO INDICATE THAT AS
GUIDANCE CAME IN VERY LOW. /15/

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THINKING IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK/INTENSITY OF
"GUSTAV" REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LA COAST AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. WHAT IS MOST PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA IS DETERMINING WHERE GUSTAV WILL GO ONCE INLAND. MOST
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYED A CONTINUED NW TRACK AFTER
LANDFALL IN LINE WITH THE NHC. GIVEN THAT STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
WEAK OVER THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS REGIONS...GUSTAV`S MOTION COULD
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUITE ERRATIC. A FEW OF THE RECENT GFS RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITION THAT WOULD FORCE
MORE OF A NWD INLAND TRACK...RESULTING IN GREATER WIND/RAIN FOR OUR
AREA. GIVEN THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE AREA ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER NE LA/SW MS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE BASED ON IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD LINGER AS MENTIONED ABOVE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY MID MORNING WITH SCT-BKN DECKS FROM 4-6K
FEET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

15/EC