000 FXUS62 KJAX 231941 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 241 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS...BROAD SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE S AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OVER SE GA AND POINTS N. LOW CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT N IN RESPONSE TO BACKING AND INCREASING WIND FLOW AT THE CLOUD LEVEL. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FAIRLY DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 BENEATH THE CLOUDS OVER THE N ZONES TO THE MID 70S OVER THE S 1/3 OF THE AREA. .SHORT TERM...CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE S INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT A RETURN OF LOW CIGS IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GREATEST THREAT OF FOG IS INDICATED BY THE FOG TOOL AND MOS TO BE OVER SE GA. UPPER TROF WILL DIG UPSTREAM ON TUE...BRINGING A WAVE OR LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE PENINSULA BY WED BEFORE CONSOLIDATING A STRONGER TROF AND EVENTUAL LOWS OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT... THE GFS IS WETTER ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE NAM DEVELOPS A COASTAL TROF AND EVENTUAL WEAKER LOWS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUE AND WED. THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN DRIER...MORE NW FLOW THRU MUCH OF TUE AND WED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO DUE TO STRENGTH OF UPPER FEATURES AND CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER SE AREAS AND GENERALLY CAPPED AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT. .LONG TERM...DEPARTING ATLC LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND DRIER WX BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SAT MORNING. TEMPERATURES THRU THE EXTENDED WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. GFS AND DGEX DEPICT A SHARP UPPER TROF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WHAT COULD BE A POTENT SFC COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT GNV THIS AFTN...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MVFR/VFR AT JAX...CRG AND VQQ WITHIN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AS SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LOW CIGS ERODING S-N. SSI WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR. EXPECT MOST SITES TO FALL BACK TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE AT SSI...JAX...CRG AND VQQ. GNV MAY HAVE TEMPO LIFR/IFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. && .MARINE...LIGHT ENE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER AROUND OF DENSE FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING AND WILL ADVERTISE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1NM AT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEAR SHORE LEGS. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE AFTN AS INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE FL COAST...THEN NLY WINDS DECREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE THU AS A RE-INFORCING TROUGH PUSHES TROUGH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRI ALL LEGS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 66 50 68 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 54 66 55 68 / 10 10 30 30 JAX 55 69 55 70 / 10 20 30 20 SGJ 60 70 59 71 / 20 30 40 20 GNV 56 72 56 72 / 10 30 30 20 OCF 59 74 59 73 / 20 30 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ CARROLL/ENYEDI/KEEGAN