000 FXUS62 KKEY 100303 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1003 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... A MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING MORE EASTERLY WINDS. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER KEYS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FROM THE MID PORTION OF THE KEYS WESTWARD...SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS POINT OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN WHERE RAIN IS FALLING IN THE UPPER KEYS. THE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE LOCAL EVENING SOUNDING HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...WHILE THE WINDS THROUGH ROUGHLY 5000 FEET CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS VEERING AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE EVIDENT FROM OUR NEIGHBORS UPSTREAM IN MIAMI. HAVE ALREADY SENT A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER...BASICALLY TO BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER KEYS. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS HAD TRANSITIONING SKY CONDITIONS INSERTED...AND A FINER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO THE EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST LIFT ALOFT BREAKS OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACCORDING TO THE INTERMEDIATE GFS MODEL RUN...STEERING THE ADVERTISED DIFFERENCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... ISSUED THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY...BASICALLY FOR THE SAME REASONS FOR THE ZONE UPDATE. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE SERVICE AREA LATER TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE TO THE EAST FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER WHILE VEERING THROUGH FRIDAY WELL AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION... THROUGH 10/18Z: PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT THROUGH 13Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL. A FEW SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT MTH AND EYW...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 3000 FEET WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z. && .CLIMATE... SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST...4.69 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WHICH IS A SURPLUS OF 4.22 INCHES THUS FAR FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS THE SECOND WETTEST START TO THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST BEGAN IN 1872. THE WETTEST MONTH OF FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT KEY WEST OCCURRED IN 1872...WHEN 7.19 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.........04 AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....NELSON DATA COLLECTION.......ULRICH VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST