000 FXUS62 KKEY 230230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 A weak frontal boundary is currently draped across the forecast area. Winds have shifted to the northwest to north across island chain and surrounding coastal waters, which has helped usher in a very comfortable airmass for late April. Temperatures are in the mid 70s, with dew points in the mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms have been mostly confined to South Florida, with only a few showers crossing over the eastern Upper Keys this evening. Convective activity has waned over the past few hours as it has drifted south towards our area. Behind the front, high pressure extending across the Eastern Seaboard has started to build in and winds have increased in response. Marine observation platforms along the Reef are measuring winds between 15 to 20 knots. The main question of the evening is just how high winds will get. Have decided to keep the Upper Keys split off from the rest of the island chain for both marginally higher winds and slight rain chances through the overnight hours. Hi-res models continue to suggest a few more showers in the eastern portion of the forecast area are not out of the question. All in all, no changes were needed to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern Hawk Channel, eastern Straits of Florida, and SE Gulf. In all other coastal waters, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are being advertised. Marine wind observations in these coastal waters will continue to be monitored overnight, as some model guidance suggest a more widespread near 20 knot range than what is currently forecast. From synopsis, a weak front will continue to move through the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Fresh to strong breezes will clock around to the northeast before sunrise, with moderate northeast to east breezes prevailing from late Tuesday night through Thursday. Strengthening high pressure over the western North Atlantic will produce fresh to strong easterly breezes to the Keys marine zones beginning Friday, lasting through much of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 While VFR conditions will generally prevail at both island terminals, intermittent MVFR CIGS are possible early tonight, especially at EYW. Skies will quickly clear out before midnight. Surface winds will start tonight northwest to north at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. Winds will gradually clock around to the northeast then to the east by tomorrow morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1901, the daily record cold high temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for April in Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 82 74 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 73 83 75 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest