000 FXUS63 KLBF 092356 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 556 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY CLEARING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 9Z TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KVTN TERMINAL BY 03Z AND THE KLBF TERMINAL BY 06Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MVFR CEILINGS AON 2000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z AT THE KVTN TERMINAL...AND AFTER 12Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT THE KVTN TERMINAL...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH AINSWORTH AND IMPERIAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH WARMING UP SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH MOBRIDGE AND RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA. DISCUSSION... ARCTIC FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS DEVELOP A JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF IN ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH PLATTE AREA. IT IS FAIRLY COLD THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...SO A FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LIQUID RATIO IS ANTICIPATED...ABOUT 15 TO 1...BUT LIMITED QPF SHOULD KEEP SNOW TOTALS DOWN DESPITE THE HIGHER RATIO. WILL WORD AS LIGHT SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO REITERATE THAT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR EVENT. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. COLD SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTER HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RECYCLE COLD AIR NORTHWARD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FROM THE LOW 30S EASTERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND FLURRIES PANHANDLE/ADJACENT SANDHILLS. A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST MONDAY...SUPPORTED BY SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. HIGHS MONDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 30S SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT CONSALL MODEL OUTPUT HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT/THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. REMOVED MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE MID WEEK CHANCES. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...TAYLOR/ROBERG AVIATION...BUTTLER