000
FXUS63 KLBF 240932
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOWING PLAINS CYCLONE MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS...PULLING IN DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NEXT SYSTEM IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS CANDIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BE DROPPING INTO DAKOTA BY THIS
EVENING AND INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 48 HRS. THIS CLIPPER WILL
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. PCPN NOT REALLY OF A CONCERN AS LIFT THROUGH DENDRITIC
LAYER IS MINIMAL AND FAIRLY DRY LOWER LAYERS WILL BE HARD TO
SATURATE. LOOKING AT MODEL BUFKIT DATA MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE
STRONG CAA WILL BE FLURRIES ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. ONLY PLACE
MEASUREABLE PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE IS DOWNSTREAM FROM HILLS IN NW FLOW
COUPLING WITH UPPER JET AXIS ALOFT AND LOW POPS RETAINED. MAIN
CONCERN LOOKS TO BE WINDY CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WEDNESDAY AROUND SUNRISE. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MET ATTM WITH TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND A RATHER WEAK PRESS CHANGE COUPLET. SOMETHING
TO BE WATCHED THE NEXT FEW RUNS BUT WILL HAVE WINDY WORDING IN FCST.
FEEL BC MOSGUIDE LOOKING GOOD AND STARTED WITH THIS WITH A FEW
TWEAKS...BASICALLY MID AND UPPER 40S TODAY COOLING TO LOWER 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS CLIPPER REINFORCES TROF AND DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS...NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARD NW COAST AND ALLOWS RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS ROCKIES THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT NICE LATE WEEK WARMUP WILL BE ON TAP BEFORE THIS WESTERN
SYTEM MOVES INTO PLAINS AND DRAGS IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR LATE
WEEKEND. SOME MODEL SOLNS SHOWING PCPN IN VCNTY OF CWA SAT/SAT NIGHT
WITH PROGRESSING OF THE NEXT TROF BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW THIS FAR
OUT TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING BUT CLOUD COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT
AGL AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE 05Z TO 08Z TIME FRAME AT KVTN AND DURING THE 07Z TO 10Z TIME
FRAME AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

13/CLB