000
FXUS63 KLBF 142029 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...MILDER TEMPERATURES TO ARRIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A
COOLDOWN WITH RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

&&

.SHORTER TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER NEAR PIR SD THIS
AFTN. SOME -RA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO SCTRL NEBR. MOVEMENT PER AREA
88DS IS A WESTWARD DRIFT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR -RA ERN
THIRD OF FA TONIGHT. NEAR SATURATION BLW H7 AND WEAK LIFT ALSO
FAVORS LIGHT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL INTO THE ERN HALF. AREAS OF
FOG TO ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD
END BY LATE MORNING MONDAY. AIRMASS FOR MONDAY NOT ANY WARMER THAN
TODAYS. HOWEVER...AFTN CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY WITH
SWRN AREAS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S. EAST AND NCTRL A BIT COOLER
IN MID 40S.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS MAY FINALLY REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
NEAR 60 FCST FOR ERN PNHDL AND FAR SWRN AREAS...MID 50S CENTRAL AND
NEAR 50 NORTHEAST.

THE WARMEST DAY IN WEEKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHOVED
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH AROUND 60 WEST OF HWY 83 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE
EAST.

&&

.LONGER TERM DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT FAST AND POSSIBLE NOT AMPLIFYING ENOUGH
AFTER GLANCING AT IT/S ENSEMBLES. UKMET AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 12Z FRIDAY...AND THE GFS LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. WE/LL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS
AND UKMET...AND INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A MILD DAY AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN TEMPS WILL COOL AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPS THEN TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KAIA TO KBBW. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AT 5
TO 10 KTS. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY ALL MVFR BY 18Z
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ROBERG
AVIATION/EXTENDED DISCUSSION...TAYLOR