000
FXUS64 KLCH 301015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOOK AT LATEST SATELLITE PICS AND ALL EYES GO RIGHT TO HURRICANE
GUSTAV LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND NORTHWEST CUBA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHWEST. FROM SATELLITE...RECON AND CUBA RADAR...GUSTAV IS
GOING THROUGH A FAIRLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS EARLY MORNING
BECOMING A CATEGORY 3 STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY ALLOWING PEOPLE TO
FINISH PREPARATIONS. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS
PWAT DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES. WOULD EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY. HOT CONDITIONS WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST.

MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO HURRICANE GUSTAV IS STARTING TO FOCUS
ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV TO THE SAINT MARY COAST AROUND 1 AM
TUESDAY. LATEST WIND SWATCH SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK.

FOLLOWED A MIX OF ECMWF AND GFS BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARRIVING ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  75  94  74  88 /  20  10  20  20  50
KBPT  96  74  94  74  91 /  20  10  20  20  40
KAEX  98  73  96  73  87 /  20  10  20  20  50
KLFT  95  75  93  74  85 /  20  10  30  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE: RUA
AVIATION: JS