000 FXUS64 KLCH 100318 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 918 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLIER TO REFLECT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE EARLIER AND A LITTLE HIGHER IN COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATING AGAIN TO BUMP POPS EVEN HIGHER AS SFC OBS INDICATE THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS ON LOCAL RADARS ARE IN FACT PRECIPITATING TO THE GROUND. FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY DEPARTING THE SWRN ZONES AND CROSSING THE SERN ZONES. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE NEXT ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVING UP THE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE OVER CNTL/SRN TX. GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR EITHER EVENING/OVERNIGHT/BOTH BASED ON THESE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY THE SWRN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE SERLY LO-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALLOWING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UPWARD THIS EVENING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. MINOR DISTURBANCES WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAINS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS EASING DOWN INTO MVFR. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION... TODAY...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON NORTHERLY WINDS. RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A VERY BUSY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE LIFTS UP THE TEXAS COAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN OUT OF TEXAS TOMORROW AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SO TONIGHT... SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SHRTWV WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL SUPPORT FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKING AT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS NEXT EVENT AND TEMPS ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S. SATURDAY...THINGS DRY OUT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRIDGING DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR STARTING THE DAY OUT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S. WINDS WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR SOME MORE RAIN.... SHOWERS WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT EVENT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 47 59 43 58 33 / 80 90 30 10 10 KBPT 49 60 44 59 33 / 80 90 20 10 10 KAEX 42 57 39 54 30 / 70 90 20 10 10 KLFT 46 58 44 57 33 / 80 90 30 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$