000 FXUS64 KLIX 301010 CCA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 507 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008 .SHORT TERM... MAIN CONCERNS ARE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACH OF NOW MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST INCREASED TO 115 MPH. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST PACKAGES EXCEPT LANDFALL IS A BIT LATER. TODAY WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABSENCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AGAIN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY NIGHT...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME NEAR SHORE AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING CONTINUES...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA EITHER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. 22 .LONG TERM... CURRENT NHC FORECAST FOR GUSTAV INDICATES A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL...MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SEVERE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. REMEMBER THAT GUSTAV COULD BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE AND TRACK ERRORS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO REALLY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH MORE NORMAL SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 22 && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION ALLOWING FOR THIS FOG FORMATION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AROUND THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GULF SOUTH. ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32 .MARINE... HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY...AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS SWELLS EMANATING FROM THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS FROM THIS HURRICANE. 32 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 30 BTR 95 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 30 MSY 93 77 90 76 / 10 10 30 50 GPT 92 74 90 76 / 20 10 30 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ066. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ550-555- 570-575. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ555-570- 575. && $$