000 FXUS64 KLIX 240530 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1130 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION... FOG AND AREAS OF STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ UPDATE... ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH A PW VALUE OF 0.64 INCHES AND A LI OF 7.2. SURFACE RIDGING IS AIDING IN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15K FEET. 98/SO PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ SHORT TERM... FINALLY GETTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SCT CU ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SFC RIDGING STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH IS KEEPING RETURN FLOW FROM OCCURRING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE AREA. LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING THEN THE PAST FEW OVERCAST NIGHTS. THIS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO HARD FOR TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO DEW POINTS AND THUS PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TONIGHT PERIOD. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN PTLY CLDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DAYTIME. HIGHS SHOULD BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES AND POSSIBLY REACH MID 70S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LEE SIDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS TX TUES AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN SUCH LOW COVERAGE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUES NIGHT. FROPA WILL BE BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. QPF SHOULD BE QUITE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THRU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOW POPS. LONG TERM... RAIN IS NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BEFORE THE TROUGH CAN EXIT WHICH WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD SURGE/FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. SOME OF THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...WINDS GO CALM...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED. FCST LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MEX RANGING FROM JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE LA COAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FCST POPS ARE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF/S SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. MEFFER MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO THE CWA WILL KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. NERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY THRU TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION AREA ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A MORE POTENT COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 47 71 46 65 / 0 10 20 10 BTR 50 75 48 66 / 0 20 20 10 MSY 54 74 54 66 / 0 10 20 10 GPT 49 71 52 67 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$