000
FXUS65 KLKN 242339
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE
ON RIDGING AT 500MB INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50
AND 55. THE EDGE MIGHT BE TAKEN OFF WARMING NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE TROF MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...WITH
700MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8C NORTH AND -5C CENTRAL BY 00Z SATURDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREBY MAKING
PRECIP TYPE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIP HAS SLOWED UP IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...WITH LOWER QPF...SO CLOUDS MAY BE MORE THE CHARACTER OF THE
DAY FRIDAY THAN PRECIP...EXCEPT IN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. REA

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MASS FIELDS
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN
GENERAL...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE ECMWF IS
DEEPER. THE ECMWF SPINS UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
SOUTHWEST. WHAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO PORTIONS OF WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES. THIS JACKPOT CLIPPER
WILL ESPECIALLY IMPACT THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE LKN CWA ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE SILVER STATE RESULTING IN A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/97/97