000
FXUS65 KLKN 300902
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY...AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 135W WILL BE MOVING TO THE WEST COAST BY 00Z SUN.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA AND SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS OF CWA
SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH
THE 90S AGAIN. FURTHER EAST MAY SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. PW`S WILL
BE APPROACHING THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
00Z SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME WETTING RAINS IS THERE...ESPECIALLY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AS WELL. INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE RUBIES WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT THINK THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO HIGH IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT COMING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA...
AT LEAST THROUGH 09Z SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN RIGHT
BEHIND THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. 110+KT JET STREAK WILL BE
MOVING DOWN WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING SYSTEM TO TRY AND
CUTOFF AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON BY 00Z MON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CWA
BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL SEE A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS
AREA WITH NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE MID 60S
WHILE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA OVER ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT. JMG

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV SUNDAY NIGHT AND LABOR DAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST...ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS. FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING AT
MANY LOCATIONS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. MCGEE &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MCGEE &&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ITS
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER 455 AND EASTERN HALF OF 457 WHILE MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS.  WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING
GOING AS IS. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER 455...457
AND EAST OF THE RUBIES IN 452. THE MOISTURE WILL BE GETTING DEEPER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
WETTING RAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN 455 AND EASTERN 457 WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. ELSEWHERE MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND MOVE QUICKLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RUBIES SUNDAY BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE BRISK WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST
15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE AROUND 15 PERCENT AND COULD BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY SO WILL KEEP WATCH GOING FOR SAME AREAS
AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. JMG &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES FROM NOON PDT
THROUGH 9 PM PDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 454 AND 457 FROM NOON
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

$$