000
FXUS65 KLKN 092241
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 PM PST THU FEB 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE OUT CLOUDS AND 
BRING IN WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND 
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY TURNING TO ALL SNOW FOR 
SUNDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEMS LOOMS ON THE 
HORIZON EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OLD 
CUT OFF LOW STILL DIGGING SOUTH ALONG MEXICAN COAST...SOUTH OF CABO 
SAN LUCAS. BETWEEN THAT AND THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE QUEEN 
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
AS PREDICTED. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING. 

NEXT SYSTEM IS SATURDAY...OR SATURDAY NIGHT...OR SUNDAY...DEPENDING 
ON WHICH MODEL RUN YOU LOOK AT. LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PRETTY ON INTENSITY...ONLY TO HAVE IT SHOT 
ALL TO PIECES TODAY. HAVE TAKEN A COMBO APPROACH...ESPECIALLY ON QPF 
AND POPS...USING EVERY AVAILABLE MODEL AND ENHANCING THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...WHILE UNDERPLAYING THE VALLEYS. 

UPPER SPLIT FLOW IS THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THE INDECISION. A WEAK JET 
MAX SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL TEND TO PRODUCE A WEAK 
TONOPAH LOW IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL ENHANCE QPF IN NORTHERN NYE 
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO FORM IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROF PASSAGE...WHICH WILL DRAW LIMITED 
COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPS DO COOL OFF ENOUGH 
FOR SNOW BUT SOME AREAS COULD START OFF AS RAIN SATURDAY AND TURN TO 
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. 

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE 
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NYE...THE 
RUBY/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS...ESPECIALLY 
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN ORTHOGONAL TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERMATH 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH'S EASTERN EXIT.

IMPACT WISE...SOME HIGHWAY OVERPASSES AND SUMMITS COULD BECOME 
SLUSHY...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS 50 AND 6...INTERSTATE 80 FROM AROUND 
BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WELLS TO PEQUOP SUMMIT...AND HIGHWAY 93. WILL 
ISSUE HWO TO ADDRESS THESE POSSIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. LONGWAVE PATTERN 
WILL BEGIN WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL 
FLOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH 
LARGE SPREAD IN SHORTWAVE FEATURES BETWEEN THE GEM/ECWMF/GFS THAT 
LEAD TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE WX. TEMPS AND PRECIP 
SHOULD RUN NEAR AVG FOR THIS PERIOD.  

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD...AS THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH 
PULLS OUT. BY MONDAY MORNING A TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST COAST WITH A CLOSED 542DAM LOW OVER NORTHERN CALI. 
YESTERDAYS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS A THING 
OF THE PAST...AS 500MB HEIGHT SPREAD CONTINUES TO GROW WITH LATEST 
GUIDANCE. THE ECWMF IS THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE 
TROUGH DIGGING ALL THE WAY TO THE BAJA BY TUESDAY...THE GEM IS MUCH 
MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND. IT IS 
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z ECWMF WAS AN EXTREME OUTLIER IN 
THE ECWMF ENSEMBLES...THUS LEANING AGAINST THE SUPER DEEP 12Z ECWMF 
AT THIS TIME...AND WENT WITH A 12Z GEFS COMPROMISE. THUS STILL 
LOOKING AT PRECIP TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 
LINGER STRAIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB CIRCULATION CLOSES OFF. 
TO MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT LOOKS LIKE 
CENTRAL NV WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING 
SNOWFALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER ACROSS 
CENTRAL NV ZONES.  

PARTIAL CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING IS PROGGED TO WORK 
INTO THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND KEPT IT DRY ON 
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RE-INTRODUCING CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON 
THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE. 


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE 
NEXT 24HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT 
WINDS.  


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/95/95