000
FXUS63 KLMK 301046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO COMBINE WITH
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED FRIDAY.  TONIGHT...WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
REGION...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS UP AROUND 90 INTO THE LOW
90S THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
TEMP/CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT
OUT OF THE EAST UNTIL WED WHEN THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO TURN WINDS TO THE S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS AS FOLLOWS:

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEMS GUSTAV AND/OR HANNAH PUSHING INTO
THE GULF AND POOLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-MS AND OHIO
VALLEYS. ONLY INSERTED POPS FOR FRIDAY AT THIS POINT GIVEN
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
LATE NEXT WEEK...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW HPC GUIDANCE...AND CLOSER TO
ENSEMBLES/12Z MEX MOS.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

IFR VISIBILITIES AT LEX TO IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER THAT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
AND NORTH OF LEX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE
WILL APPROACH LEX ITSELF AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS.

BWG AND SDF SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....MACZKO