000
FXUS63 KLSX 301144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW DAY BY DAY TEMPERATURE
MODERATION. THE MET MOS GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED MOST CLOSELY FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS
A SUPERIOR TRACK RECORD FOR MAX TEMPS OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS OR
SO...WHILE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR MINS.

TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF WHAT WILL BY THEN BE THE REMNANTS OF THE
HURRICANE GUSTAV. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CIRCULATION AND
MOISTURE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND MIDWEEK...WHILE
NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
MEANDER THE CIRCULATION BACK INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AFTER A
WRN LOUISIANA COASTAL LANDFALL. GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSERVATIVELY FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
AND ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/641 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THRU THE END OF PD. NELY TO ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH CLEAR SKIES. SHUD MIX OUT ENOUGH TODAY TO LOWER CHANCES OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX