000 FXUS64 KLUB 232129 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 329 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .SHORT TERM... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 OR 7 MB PER HOUR. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS TYPICALLY WINDIER NORTHERN ZONES AND MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER THAN THAT EVEN ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST PUSH APPEARS HEADED. FRONT WILL BE DRY THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR SO FOLLOWING FRONT. STILL...SOLID COOLING MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT... WILL DROP MOST LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ON THE CAPROCK. BETTER MIXED WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY BUT WILL STILL MIX OUT A BIT INTO LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWERED MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY SUPPORTED BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD ADVECTION VIA CURRENT MODEL RUNS. RMCQUEEN && .LONG TERM... RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THINGS MAY TURN INTERESTING BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A S/W RIDGE QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. EARLY ON...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. STILL...THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE A QUICK RECOVERY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE...THOUGH LIKELY BEING WHISKED EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...EYES TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUALLY OUTCOME...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY OF THE WINTRY VARIETY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS....THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL SHUNT A GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...LIKELY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED JUST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A NUMBER OF SITES AT LEAST MOMENTARILY MET WIND AND HUMIDITY REQUIREMENTS. STILL SOME CONCERN WITH ARRIVAL OF A STRONG FAST MOVING FRONT INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRONTAL COOLING WILL HELP INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES... HOWEVER THE STIFF WINDS WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN. WE CONTINUE TO ADVISE THAT ANY BURNS BE DEALT WITH USING HIGH LEVELS OF CARE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS AND STATE OF CURED FUELS. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 24 55 20 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 27 56 20 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 27 56 21 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 26 57 20 61 22 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 30 58 24 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 27 57 24 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 28 57 24 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 34 61 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 34 60 23 66 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 37 62 26 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/23