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FXUS64 KLZK 250532 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM 6 TO 12
KNOTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ARKANSAS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF COOLER AIR/BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM STARTS WITH RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STRENGTH...TIMING...AND
LOCATION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...BUT THERE ARE MANY
INDICATIONS OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM EFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING PINPOINTING THE HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL MOVE...BUT THERE IS REASONABLE
CERTAINTY IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS. WHILE TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS DETAILS...THERE COULD BE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION...WHILE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
WINTER PRECIP WILL BECOME THE FORECAST CONCERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS PREVIOUS
GFS AND ECMWF. IF THE TRENDS REVEALED IN THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE...WILL HAVE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT...WHILE
BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW FOR AR.

BEST POPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE SUN INTO MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STARTING
OFF ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DIPPING BELOW NORMAL WITH PRECIP AND BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61