000 FXUS64 KLZK 100548 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1148 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE THAT A RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTH BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AR OZARKS NEAR THE MO BORDER FRI MORNING. EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A BRIEF MIX OF FROZEN AND LIQUID PRECIP. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS...AND WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE JUST AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED...WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN ONLY SLOW WARMING. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYS QUICKLY APCHS FM THE W TNGT AND FRI. RAIN CHCS WL RETURN TO PARTS OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER TNGT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYS...EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE FA ON FRI. DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST LGT QPF AMTS...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SOME SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN INITIALLY LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI MRNG OVR PARTS OF NRN AR...BUT WL NOT INCLUDE THIS FOR NOW. THE LOW PRES SYS WL WORK QUICKLY E OF AR LATE FRI/EARLY FRI NGT... WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF LINGERING LGT RAIN OVR SERN AR. A STRONG CDFNT WL FOLLOW...USHERING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MID SOUTH. THE BLW NORMAL TEMPS WL PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC HIGH WL BEGIN TO WORK E OF AR LATER ON SUN. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN TO THE TN/AL/GA BORDER REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A DECENT ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S STATEWIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BEGIN AS SOME SORT OF FROZEN OR FREEZING VARIETY...ESPECIALLY SINCE MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. IN GENERAL...CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR...IT SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN/FREEZING RAIN...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SAY FROM CLARKSVILLE OVER THROUGH HEBER SPRINGS AND SUCH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUPLE OF ROWS OF COUNTIES...INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AS THE WARM NOSE CREEPS IN OVERHEAD. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE COOLER AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUPLE OF ROWS OF COUNTIES. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET HOLDING ON INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 12Z EURO IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL. HAVE HELD ON TO A MENTION OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS OF THIS ARE OBVIOUS. HOWEVER...THERE IS PERHAPS ONE SILVER LINING IN THIS EVENT...AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE THE DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE SHORTER. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AND EVEN WITH SUN NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S IN SOME PLACES...WE MAY BE ABLE TO AVOID MAJOR ICING ON INTERSTATES AND WELL TRAVELED ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AS WELL AS LESS-TRAVELED SECONDARY ROADS COULD ICE UP A LITTLE EASIER THOUGH. OTHERWISE THE BIGGER IMPACTS OF ANY ICING WILL PROBABLY BE ON TREES AND POWERLINES. FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH...THE DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. OF COURSE THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND SUN AS WELL...SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPCOMING FORECASTS TO SEE IF DETAILS CHANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS LOW. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON WED EVENING...WHILE THE EURO IS NOTABLY DIFFERENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORECAST AND BRINGS IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM WED ONWARD...WITH MILD TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...56