000
FXUS64 KLZK 301124 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KHRO...OTHERWISE VFR THIS MORNING. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z...WITH CU DEVELOPING AT THE SOUTHERN SITES.
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS. HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON TO SHOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AFTER 02Z...SKC WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WEAK FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS ACRS THE SWRN PART OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. PTCHY FOG HAD ALSO FORMED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND WL CONT TO
MENTION THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA VCNTY OF THE BNDRY...
SO WL CONT TO CARRY LOW POPS FOR MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WL ADVECT INTO PART OF NERN AR AS WEAK HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
REGION.

THE WEAK HIGH PRES SYS WL PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF AR THRU SUN...
RESULTING IN A GENERAL E-NE WIND FLOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN AT
OF JUST ABV NORMAL OVR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LTL IN THE WAY OR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TNGT AND SUN.

FOCUS WL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS AND NHC GUIDANCE CONT TO
INDC A LANDFALL OVR THE CNTRL LA COAST MON NGT/EARLY TUE...WITH A
SLOW NWWD MOVEMENT THEREAFTER. OPTED TO RAISE POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
FOR SRN AR TUE AND TUE NGT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TUE WITH INCRSG CLOUDS. ANY CHGS WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LATER FCST/S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE GUSTAV MAKES
LANDFALL AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF GUSTAV. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL.

MODELS DIFFERING IN THE HANDLING OF GUSTAV...AND CONTINUE TO DIFFER
IN THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DUE TO
ISSUES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE MAJOR FEATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58