000 FXUS64 KMAF 100955 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 355 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITS. IN ITS WAKE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION PINWHEELS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN ITS WAKE A SPRAWLING COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPLY COPIOUS COLD AIR. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ROCKIES AND PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER THE COLD DOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. AS THIS HAPPENS A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MODIFY THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID DURING THE NIGHT AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN COMMENCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE AIM ON THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN THE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM THEY ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 58 28 38 26 / 0 0 0 10 CARLSBAD NM 58 29 49 26 / 0 0 0 20 DRYDEN TX 64 38 56 36 / 10 0 0 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 59 36 55 31 / 10 0 0 20 GUADALUPE PASS TX 53 37 50 21 / 0 0 0 20 HOBBS NM 55 25 37 24 / 0 0 0 10 MARFA TX 61 27 60 28 / 10 0 0 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 58 27 41 25 / 0 0 0 10 ODESSA TX 58 31 41 24 / 0 0 0 10 WINK TX 60 32 51 27 / 10 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10/12