000 FXUS62 KMFL 300828 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 428 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008 ...VERY WET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS... .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING WEST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE CWA TODAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE CWA. THE WINDS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE A WND ADV...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY HOURS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF A WIND ADV WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE HURRICANE NORTHEAST INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PWAT VALUES GETTING UP TO 2.5 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SO WILL UP THE POPS TODAY TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL OF THE CWA...AND CONTINUE NUMEROUS POPS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THIS AREA ON SUNDAY. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TALK ABOUT IN THE HYDRO SECTION. STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO HAS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A SEE TEXT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV AFFECTING THE WEST COAST AREAS. SO WILL MENTION A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR THE WEST COAST AREAS OF THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE. WITH THE WINDY EAST WINDS TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST MINS FOR THIS DATE WHICH ARE: CITIES SAT FORECAST LOW WARMEST LOW MIA 82 82 - 2001 FLL 83 81 - 2007 PBI 82 82 - 1986 .EXTENDED FORECAST... HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER THE CWA...AND START TO TAKE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. SO THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE POPS SHOULD RETURN TO BACK TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS. THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS TROPICAL STORM HANNA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING HER TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE HANNA TO THE WEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON EITHER HURRICANE GUSTAV OR TROPICAL STORM HANNA...PLEASE SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE ADVISORY FOR THESE STORMS. && .MARINE... THE WINDS OVER THE CWA WATERS TODAY WILL BE EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS PROBABILITY NUMBERS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THE GULF WATERS COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM WINDS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WORDING OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 6 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GULF SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 6 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 6 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL PUT UP A SCA FOR ALL OF THE CWA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 MPH OR LESS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE WINDS OVER CWA WATERS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. AT THIS TIME WILL BE SHOWING A NORTHERLY WIND SWINGING TO A EASTERLY WIND BY THE WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FEET LATE THIS WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DUE TO THE WINDY EASTERLY WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO PROBLEMS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTION ABOVE...THE PWAT VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING WAS AROUND 2.2 INCHES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 2.5 TO 2.6 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE THE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. IF THE TRENDS CONDITIONS AS FORECAST...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 82 88 81 / 80 70 70 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 83 87 82 / 80 70 70 40 MIAMI 87 82 88 81 / 80 70 70 40 NAPLES 91 77 91 78 / 80 70 80 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630- AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657- GMZ676. && $$ LONG TERM...54/BNB SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG