000 FXUS62 KMHX 300701 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 301 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS OVER THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A FEW TSRA DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS WERE DRY. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TD...MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFT. NOT LOOKING AT ANY PARTICULAR SOURCE OF LIFT OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE LINGER LOW INLAND. WITH POOR DYNAMICS DON`T ANTICIPATE SVR STORMS...BUT WITH CAPES AROUND 2K COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS AGAIN SLOW TODAY...SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TNT...AND WITH CONTINUED WAA AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PW~2" CAN`T RULE OUT ISOL TSRA AND PATCHY FOG. THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING INLAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN...TURNING WINDS TO THE NE. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIG AIRMASS CHANGE...JUST MORE OF A WIND SHIFT. MEANWHILE...THE MID LVL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH...AND THOUGH NOT VERY POTENT IT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING HIGH PW VALUES TO TRIGGER SCT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN...DRIVING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION SUN NT. THIS WILL ERODE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS BY MON MORNING. A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OFF OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BLOCK THE HIGH FROM MOVING E OFF THE COAST...WHICH WILL KEEP IT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...REMOVING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE THICKNESSES WILL NOT DROP SIG WITH THE HIGH...AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE LATER PART OF THE FCST WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF TS HANNA...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS OF NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH A SCHC OF RAIN ON FRI. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BASED ON LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE PRETTY MUCH REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. EWN/PGV CURRENTLY VFR WITH OAJ AND ISO IN THE MVFR RANGE IN FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND SOME CEILINGS IN STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW VSBYS TOWARD MORNING ON SUNDAY. WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT...WHICH PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO SEE SOME SCT CONVECTION. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REST OF FCST PD. && .MARINE... SAME BASIC FORECAST SCENARIO AS PAST FEW DAYS. GENERALLY S/SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR NORTH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA WILL START TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS RAISING COMBINED SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. QUESTIONABLE FCST BEYOND TUESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THE TRACK OF HANNA...STRENGTH OF SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH AND FUTURE COURSE OF STRONG NORTH ATLANTIC LOW. GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY AND ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE OVER RODANTHE TO OCRACOKE ISLAND. REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW RANGE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...SJ SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...CTC MARINE...CTC