000 FXUS62 KMHX 241619 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1118 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH BLANKET THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS TRIES TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM MODEL KEEPS THE LOW CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY. WE PREFER THE NAM AS THERE ARE NO MECHANISMS FOR SCORING OUT THE WEDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TODAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LOW LEVELS ARE MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR HIGHER MOST OBSERVING SITES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE NAM WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS/DREARY FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMMING SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COL SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH MID 60S MAV FORECAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE NAM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE SE COAST. SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRID SCALE FEEDBACK IT IS LIKELY TOO WET OVER NC. WE ARE ALREADY CARRYING MINIMAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST COAST) SO WILL CONTINUE FOR 1 MORE FORECAST CYCLE. ANY COASTAL MOISTURE SHOULD WANE THURSDAY BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO WRING OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SO AGAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING SO REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DESPITE PRESENCE OF COLD/UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MILD MID 60S THURSDAY THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THICKNESSES COME UP. HOWEVER...NIGHTS WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION. L-M30S POSSIBLE DEEP INLAND SAT AND SUN MORNINGS BEFORE MODIFYING A FEW DEGREES INTO MON MORNING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BUT DID NOT WANT TO MESS WITH DAY 7 FORECAST UNTIL MORE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 930 TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO BREAK THE REGIME THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES ALSO. PREV DISC...AS OF 230 AM TUE...ALL TAF SITES SHOWS LIFR CEILINGS WITH REDUCED VSBY IN FOG. ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM LIFR TO IFR/MVFR LATER TODAY...THEN BACK DOWN TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TO THE W WILL WEAKEN ON WED AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK AS ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY. WIND AVERAGING ABOUT 15 KTS NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 10 KTS SOUTH OF HATTERAS. SEA HEIGHTS MARGINAL SCA AT BEST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SEAS REACHING 6 FT OR MORE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY SO WILL LET SCA RUN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WATERS INTO SATURDAY. SCA IS EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY FOR THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PREV DISC...AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF OCRACOKE. SEAS ARE HOVERING AROUND 5-6 FT AT DUCK AND 6 FT AT DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CURRENTLY. LOCAL SWAN MODEL RUN AND WW3 IN AGREEMENT WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF HAT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. THE NEXT COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON WED AND WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ON THU ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN NE OF THE AREA LATE THU AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. GFS MODEL ADVERTISING STRONG SCA CONDS WITH NW WINDS 25-30 KT AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY SAT. PRES GRAD RELAXES LATE SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL AWAY TO THE NE AND SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...JME/MW AVIATION...CGG MARINE...CGG