000 FXUS62 KMHX 100800 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 300 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY AND TRACK RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. IT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024MB HIGH OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY AS S/SW FLOW RETURNS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND RETURN FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC THEN INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT AM. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH TOTAL QPF AMTS LIKELY 0.20-0.75"...WITH HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS VALUES AROUND 1"...WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH CAPPED AT LIKELY FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME BEST WINDOW WILL BE BTWN 03-09Z WHEN LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AS INITIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 50S. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED STRONG DPVA AND PV ANOMALY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COUNTIES...GIVEN VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO BETWEEN A HALF AND AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING FAIRLY HIGH...WILL FORECAST ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR NOW IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 40 DEGREES. WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S AREA-WIDE. BY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY RISE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A WEAK GULF LOW WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AS UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BUILD. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 3 AM FRI...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED...SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 08-13Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT THE PGV TAF SITE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. MAIN STORY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LOWER CEILING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5KT AND SEAS 2-3FT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS MORNING. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW RETURNING TO THE WATERS. WINDS 15KT OR LESS TODAY AND SEAS 2-3FT. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT AM. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5FT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD BTWN 06-12Z WHERE THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT AND BRIEF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER PORTIONS OF WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MODELS...WHICH ARE SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THIS TIME FRAME. INITIAL SURFACE LOW EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS RAMPING UP BY LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BLASTS THROUGH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. USING A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL SEE SEAS BUILD TO AS MUCH AS 8 OR 9 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS DROP BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CQD/CTC MARINE...CQD/CTC