000
FXUS63 KMKX 081643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES TODAY. IF ANY CUMULUS 
CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DUE TO THE DRY AIR 
IN PLACE. THE SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS FEEL WARM 
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. 

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC 
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WI. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
AND INTO IOWA LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK NORTH 850 MB WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND 
CONTINUE TONIGHT.  WEAK 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND 
TONIGHT.  ATMOSPHERE IS DRY SO AFTER LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS FAR 
SOUTHEAST ERODES...NO LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.  THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY NOON TIME.  

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WEST. DESPITE 
THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WE COULD STILL RADIATE OUT FAIRLY WELL  
TONIGHT.  WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER MOS OVER MUCH OF THE 
CONSENSUS GRIDS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AHEAD 
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS SKIES MAY STAY MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IF THE DRIER MODELS PAN
OUT.

LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER END OF MODELS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER 
AND THE OVERALL MODEL COLD BIAS THIS WINTER. THUS EXPECTING MILDER 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO PUSH TEMPS INTO 
THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND 
UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...WITH MODELS 
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION NOT AS DEEP AS INDICATED 24 HOURS
AGO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

BUMPED POPS UP NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOWING DECENT 
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. CONSENSUS OF MODEL 1000-850 MB FLOW HAS 
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES 
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20C. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KENOSHA SHOWING DECENT 
SATURATION...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 KFT...SO PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE. 

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

STILL EXPECTING THE WEEKEND TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO 
THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING 
SYSTEM SATURDAY...WARMING TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS WITH LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE 
FAR SOUTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL 
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.  THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 

MARINE...

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE 
PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY 
NORTH WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES FRIDAY...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV