000
FXUS63 KMKX 050924
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
424 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EARLY THIS AM
AS 1003 MB LOW MOVES NEWD THROUGH LOWER MI. CLEARING LINE HAS
STALLED NEAR MS RIVER WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA
AND ERN MN. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EWD LATER THIS AM
AND STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO MAINLY DISSIPATE VIA LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND/OR MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH
CENTRAL WI TNT WITH 300-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER
CENTRAL AND NRN WI. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN SE WI BUT A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE NRN AND
WRN CWA SO KEPT 20-30 POPS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE SAT
AND SAT NT AS GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN
WLY FLOW TO APPROACH SAT AFT AND MOVE ACROSS SAT NT. SMALL AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL CAPE PRESENT ON FCST SOUNDINGS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD LGT SHOWERS.

A WLY 100 KT JET STREAM WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL USA BY 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEADING THE
WAY. WILL FOLLOW THE LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD FROM SRN MN TO CENTRAL AND NRN WI.
BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS FOCUSED IN NRN WI BUT
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MLCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG WITH EQ LEVELS
AROUND 500 MB. CONTINUED THE LOW POPS WITH THUNDER FOR SRN WI.

.LONG TERM...YET ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN WLY
FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES MON/MON NT WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CIGS OVR ALL BUT FAR WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. ENOUGH WIND
FROM THE NW KEEPING VSBYS VFR.  MODEL SOUNDINGS/LLV MOISTURE PROGS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOULD SEE
CLEARING AT KMSN BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AT KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 16-18Z.
VFR MID DECK OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ATTM ASSOC WITH NEXT S/W IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SPREADS INTO THE AREA PRIMARILY AFTER ABOUT
02Z. S/W COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AROUND KMSN...BUT AT
THIS POINT CHC IS TOO LOW AND LATE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE TURNED OFF SHORE AND ARE GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH LAKE BUOY STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 22KTS.
WAVES LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A WHILE AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT UNTIL NOON. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLIER HOWEVER.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...05