000 FXUS62 KMLB 050745 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 245 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ADVANCE OF LOW CLOUDS SLOWING ALONG SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE GULF...SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO AT MOST LIMP INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. A FEW PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG ARE EXPECTED BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. TONIGHT THE GFS HAS 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. I AM NOT BUYING INTO THIS AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY HAS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG IT AND MOISTURE VALUES PRECEDING IT ARE QUITE LOW. THE GFS MOS MAY BE REACTING TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT MAY TURN OUT TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WHICH THE GFS MIGHT BE OVERDOING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST. SAT-SAT NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND A 120 KT JET MAX MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SCHC POPS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FCST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S SOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S NORTH & INTERIOR WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH. SUN-MON...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS ECFL SUN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE DAY. ON MON THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENGULF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC MON NIGHT VEERING WINDS TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUN 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SUN WITH A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS RECOVER MON INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES NORTH WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FURTHER SOUTH. MONDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 40S FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 50S. VEERING WINDS MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. TUE-FRI...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUE AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE REGION. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS (FASTER) & ECMWF (SLOWER) WITH RESPECT TO DIGGING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE SLOWER RUN WOULD LIKELY DELAY MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA WHICH THE GFS PROGS AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY ON TUE. THEREFORE THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UP IN THE AIR AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY PRESENTS ITSELF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (HIGHS & LOWS) FOR BOTH TUE AND WED...AND POTENTIALLY THU AS WELL. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WHETHER IT BE A THU OR FRI TIMEFRAME. SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BY AT LEAST MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW CEILINGS/FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR AND THE GFS MOS IS ALREADY SHOWING IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH. && .MARINE...THROUGH TONIGHT A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. SAT-SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SAT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT. LATEST MODEL DATA NOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE SAT EVENING AND IF THIS IS THE CASE A SCA FOR WINDS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SUN-SUN NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX TO AROUND 15 KTS SUN MORNING AND TO 10-15 KTS SUN AFTN/NIGHT WHILE SLOWLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. MON-TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD PUSHES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. SEAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 54 70 50 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 76 56 72 51 / 10 10 20 10 MLB 75 57 75 53 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 76 56 77 54 / 10 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY LONG TERM....SEDLOCK