000 FXUS64 KMOB 042203 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND IS NOW SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WIDESPREAD. THE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT THOSE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE RAINS WILL BE ENDING...EXPECT THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND EVEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OVER EASTERN ZONES. WITH THIS...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES...BUT CONTINUED NW-N FLOW AND CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AS WELL. 12/DS && .LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE WILL WAIT AND SEE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS TIME PCPN-FREE...TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS THAT THE IMPACT ON THE FCST AREA COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND MORE LONG LASTING THAN PREVIOUS FCST CALLED FOR...BUT AS WE ARE STILL TALKING 4 OR 5 DAYS OUT SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 12/DS && .AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCES)...LOW STATUS AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. /32 && .MARINE...A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LATER TONIGHT. /32 && .FIRE WEATHER...A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 12/DS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 38 56 34 58 / 10 05 05 00 PENSACOLA 43 58 39 63 / 30 10 05 00 DESTIN 48 60 41 60 / 50 10 05 00 EVERGREEN 38 55 31 59 / 30 05 05 00 WAYNESBORO 33 52 28 58 / 10 05 05 00 CAMDEN 35 54 30 59 / 10 05 05 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM... AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY. && && $$