000 FXUS64 KMOB 241117 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 510 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THIS EVENING BEFORE FROPA...BUT INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOG THREAT LATE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO IN ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA...BUT MOS POP GUIDANCE WAS SO LOW THAT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A RAIN CHANCE AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE NORMALS OF MID 60S...PLUS/MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS && .LONG TERM...BY 12Z WED UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST TO ABOUT CENTRAL LA USHERING A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWFA EARLY WED MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A BAND OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS IS NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY DURING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER TROF WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY FRI EVENING ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO SPILL DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH GIVES WAY TO THE COOLEST TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BOTH FRI AND SAT MORNING...MINS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE LOWER 40S ALONG OR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER MUCH OF AL AND MS AND SE CONUS GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SAT AND SAT EVENING...THEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA EARLY SUN AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY EXITS TO EAST AND DAMPENS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH SUN FOLLOWED BY NEXT CUT OFF LOW WITH GOOD REFLECTION AT THE SFC MOVING EAST OUT OF TX THEN SHIFTING NORTH TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12 TUE. THIS PATTEN GIVES WAY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING... SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON EVENING. DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG FORCING IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS RESULTING IN A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY THE GFS DEPICTS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES...APPROACHING 500 M2/S2 AND ABOVE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS UPCOMING WX EVENT WILL BE AVAILABLE AFTER EACH MODEL RUN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32 && .AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...VLIFR CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 12Z THIS MORNING FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. BY AROUND 13Z SFC VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z. BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 12/DS && .MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO A MODERATE FLOW...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WED GIVING WAY TO DRIER COOLER CONDITIONS THU THROUGH EARLY SAT AND POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THU AND FRI. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON THIS POSSIBLE FIRE THREAT THU THROUGH FRI. /32 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 68 45 69 41 / 10 10 10 10 PENSACOLA 65 48 70 45 / 10 10 10 10 DESTIN 67 53 71 50 / 10 10 10 10 EVERGREEN 63 42 68 38 / 05 10 10 10 WAYNESBORO 65 44 66 38 / 10 10 10 10 CAMDEN 63 43 67 39 / 10 05 10 10 CRESTVIEW 66 42 70 39 / 10 10 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$