000
FXUS63 KMPX 100758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH LT SN/FLURRIES ACROSS WC WI
EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MODEST LIFT
BELOW 70H...CREATES SOME -SN...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS WI.
ALSO NNE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER
MOISTURE IN WC WI. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND MAINLY BEFORE
9 AM AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE N/NNW ACROSS THE LAKE LATER THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...STRONG CAA AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE BELOW 85H
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.

THE CONTINUED BENIGN WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. ONE POSSIBILITY OF
LT SNOW...WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE SE 1/4 OF THE FA WILL BE
MON/MON NIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SOME LT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE SE 1/4
OF THE FA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...OR AT LEAST THRU THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS. ..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KEAU BETWEEN 06Z-07Z. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH KEAU OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. CLOUD TRENDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WAY OVERDONE ON THE NAM
WITH VFR CEILINGS FROM CENTRAL MN NORTHWARD. SO...KMSP...KRNH AND
KEAU MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST...THE FLOW WILL BE
COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE LOW CLOUDINESS BUT NOT ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR.

KMSP...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE BROKEN INTO TWO
WAVES...ONE NOW THROUGH 10Z WITH ANOTHER 14Z-18Z ON FRIDAY. USED
BKN035 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JLT/RAH