000
FXUS63 KMPX 051106 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POISED NEAR THE JUNCTION OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EXPECTED. DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS ATOP THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY LOOK QUITE MINIMAL AS THE LOW AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AS THERE WAS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT REALLY EXCITED ABOUT ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE THERE IS SOME MUCAPE DEPICTED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPIKING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A DEEPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
A PRETTY HEALTHY REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K
SURFACE...AS WELL AS MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCALES.

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
AFFECTED BY A WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...AND A
SECOND ONE THAT WILL SINK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS...AHEAD OF THE
DRY AIR INTRUSION.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE..WITH SEVERAL DAYS
SEEING HIGHS BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED IN RIVER VALLIES AND LOW SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSTC/KMSP WHERE BAND
OF MID CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS.  FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 13Z.  ALL
THIS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME.  IFR
CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN/UNDER COLD UPPER TROUGH...MAY DROP SOUTH INTO
THE KAXN/KSTC AREA DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
WILL MENTION SOME 1200-1800 FT CEILINGS/MVFR MOVING INTO THAT
REGION.  NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY WORK SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THE DAY.  WILL HOLD CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT FOR NOW.
LAPSWRF AND 4KM NMM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS INDICATING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WC WI THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO PROB30 -SHRA AT KEAU...BUT REST OF AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH/ACROSS MN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

KAT/DWE