000
FXUS65 KMSO 092116
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
216 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT. THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WILL SEE PREDOMINATELY
RAIN FROM THIS FRONT WHILE THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX. THE
VALLEYS CLOSE TO THE MONTANA/IDAHO BORDER IS ANTICIPATED TO SEE
RAIN WHILE THE VALLEYS CLOSE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BY
SNOW. A FEW VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MOIST WARM FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
COOLER ARCTIC AIR AND DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA
INCLUDING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...ALL
SNOW NORTH OF FLATHEAD LAKE AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
(WHERE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO) AND A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER ALREADY SNOW COVERED
ROADS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT

KALISPELL/WHITEFISH......2-3"
BIG FORK.................3-4" 
WEST GLACIER.............3-6"
ESSEX....................3-6" 
POLEBRIDGE...............3-6"

IN ADDITION EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH BAD
ROCK CANYON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HELLGATE CANYON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS

THE ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP SO
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEVERELY DROP. 

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BEGINS
TO SPLIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. HOWEVER THE NORTH END OF THIS SPLIT FLOW WILL HOVER OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAKER WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. 

NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF FEATURES AND THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEFT THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.


&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
STEADY FALLING CEILING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING. KMSO IS
ANTICIPATED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WHILE KGPI IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL SNOW. KBTM AND KSMN WILL SEE
SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....RPN
AVIATION...SMITH