000 FXUS63 KOAX 100527 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1127 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION... WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND BRISK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT KOFK AND SHOULD TREND TOWARD THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT ALL THREE SITES. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD DECREASE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH. SOME FLURRIES WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET LATE FRIDAY. MILLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WAS PUSHING THROUGH SW ND AS OF 19Z DRIVEN SWD BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SSE FM SE MT/NW SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT SO A VARIABLY CLOUDY NIGHT/MORNING PROBABLY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR DEPARTING LOW CLOUDS FIRST EARLY THEN TRAILING CLOUDS LAST HALF. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH INITIAL ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...TIME PERIOD FAVORABLE FOR SUCH APPEARS PRETTY SHORT AND IF ANYTHING FALLS IT WILL PROBABLY BE INSIGNIFICANT SO WL CONTINUE NO MENTION. BASED ON CURRENT READINGS UPSTREAM BEHIND FRONT...TRIMMED LOWS A FEW DEGREES NRN ZONES OTHERWISE LTL/NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. APPEARS ANY CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OF A NW TO SE BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SW...IN FACT THEY SEEM TO EVEN GET SHOVED FARTHER SW SAT BEFORE THEY START ADVANCING ON SUNDAY. SO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT OR DECREASING WINDS...AND SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER...TRIMMED LOWS BOTH FRI AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. AT THIS TIME KEPT SUNDAY DRY AS INITIAL MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVANCE DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. CHERMOK LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE MADE SOME MODEST ALTERATIONS TO POP FCST WED THROUGH THURSDAY BASED UPON THE ECM. FIRST THOUGH...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN SUN NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. AT THIS POINT THINK THE SNOW ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN BEST MID LYR WAA GET DISPLACED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SMALL AREAS OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEEMS THAT THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE ECM SLOWING THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF AXIS AND PLACES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ENERGY OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THE GFS THOUGH IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF FAVORING THE ECM THOUGH...PCPN POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. HAVE DECIDED TO GAMBLE ON THE ECM SOLUTION AND TRIMMED POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE DOWN A BIT WED/WED NIGHT AND PULLED POPS ON THURSDAY. DEE && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$