000
FXUS63 KOAX 240836
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
236 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WV LOOP SHOWING MAIN CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 07Z WITH
SOME CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.

TWO AREAS OF PRECIP SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT 07Z WITH MAIN FOCUS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. MODELS SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS HEAVIER PRECIP VERY WELL AS THE
UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LITTLE NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. RAIN EXPECTED TO END DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST EASTERN AREAS WITH SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SNOW TODAY.

MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY WAVE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. JUST
MENTIONED FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MAIN
CIRCULATION TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. COLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEN
WARMING UP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS REGION.

PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SERIES OF WAVES
DROP INTO THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER SPLIT FLOW. ECMWF MORE EXUBERANT
OF THE MODELS WITH SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO CHANGES AT THIS
TIME TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

DEFORMATION BAND THAT SET UP EARLIER ACROSS THE KOFK TAF SITE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH -SHRA ENDING THERE BEFORE 11Z AND MVFR
CIGS BCMG VFR THEREAFTER. KLNK/KOMA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SECOND DEFORMATION BAND THAT IS SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF
THESE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA
ENDING AND CIGS GOING BACK TO VFR ARE FORECAST AT KLNK BY 17Z...AND
AT KOMA BY 22Z-01Z. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-28KTS ARE
FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH GUSTS ENDING BY
23Z ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT/DEWALD