000 FGUS73 KOAX 022000 ESFOAX IA-C071-085-129-133-137-145-155-NEC023-025-067-095-107-127-131-147-15 1-159-141800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 200 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2008 ...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK... VALID DECEMBER 01 2008 TO MARCH 01 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE WEEPING WATER CREEK AT UNION...NEBRASKA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 10.0 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID DECEMBER 01 2008 - MARCH 01 2009 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- MAPLE RIVER MAPLETON IA 21.0 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.5 9.5 12.0 LITTLE SIOUX R TURIN IA 4S 20.0 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.6 9.7 10.8 11.5 15.2 SOLDIER RIVER PISGAH IA 1E 28.0 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.6 8.0 BOYER RIVER LOGAN IA 19.0 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.3 7.2 8.0 9.7 WEEPING WATER C UNION NE 25.0 5.4 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 11.4 E. NISHNABOTNA R RED OAK IA 18.0 6.4 7.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.1 10.3 12.2 W. NISHNABOTNA R HANCOCK IA 14.0 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.3 7.9 RANDOLPH IA 19.0 8.3 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 12.5 13.7 NISHNABOTNA R HAMBURG IA 23.0 8.7 9.9 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.4 13.0 14.0 15.9 LITTLE NEMAHA R AUBURN NE 1E 22.0 6.5 7.0 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.6 11.4 12.1 N FK BIG NEMAHA R HUMBOLDT NE 28.0 4.3 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.2 8.2 9.0 BIG NEMAHA R FALLS CITY NE 23.0 7.1 8.2 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.7 11.8 13.0 15.2 NODAWAY RIVER CLARINDA IA 1E 19.0 6.6 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 11.6 12.8 PONCA CREEK VERDEL NE 12.0 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.7 6.3 7.1 NIOBRARA R VERDEL NE 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 BIG BLUE R SURPRISE NE 7.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.4 LINCOLN CREEK SEWARD NE 15.0 4.3 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.4 7.3 8.1 8.9 10.4 BIG BLUE R SEWARD NE 18.0 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.7 5.7 8.1 W FK BIG BLUE R DORCHESTER NE 15.0 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 7.2 9.1 BIG BLUE R CRETE NE 18.0 8.2 8.8 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.2 13.4 14.9 17.7 TURKEY CR WILBER NE 11.0 2.8 3.3 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.4 8.0 9.4 11.1 BIG BLUE R BEATRICE NE 16.0 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.7 10.2 BARNESTON NE 20.0 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 7.3 7.7 9.0 10.7 LITTLE BLUE R FAIRBURY NE 15.0 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.3 11.7 13.2 ELKHORN R NELIGH NE 10.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.7 6.2 NORFOLK NE 12.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 5.2 5.8 7.2 PILGER NE 12.0 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.5 7.8 8.1 9.0 10.0 10.8 WEST POINT NE 12.0 5.5 5.5 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.9 HOOPER NE 14.0 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.9 6.1 8.1 9.1 10.7 WATERLOO NE 17.0 2.9 3.6 4.0 5.4 6.1 7.5 8.9 11.0 13.0 N FK ELKHORN R PIERCE NE 12.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 6.6 13.7 LOGAN CR UEHLING NE 18.0 2.1 3.0 3.9 5.7 7.0 8.9 9.7 12.4 16.4 THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK REPRESENT NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS. THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE SITES WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 22...2008. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT AHPS...PLEASE REFER TO: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OAX (ALL LOWER CASE) $$ REESE