000
AGUS71 KTAR 081625
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1224 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERFC AREA
TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BY 8:00 AM THURSDAY.  THE HIGHEST BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE
IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ABOUT 0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  MOST RISES WILL BE
A FOOT OR LESS.  THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.  IN THIS AREA
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING.
:
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS FORECAST BY THE NERFC.
HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SHARP RISES ON A FEW SMALLER
RIVERS AND CREEKS.
:
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN THE HUMID AIR MASS IN WESTERN
NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WAS LESS THAN 0
.25 INCHES.  HOWEVER SOME STORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TWO OF THE HIGHEST REPORTS WERE WELLSVILLE NY WITH 1.38 INCHES AND
LOCKE NY WITH 1.16 INCHES.
:
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS:
:
RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ARE GENERALLY STEADY
OR FALLING. MINOR RISES OF LESS THAN ONE FOOT WERE SEEN IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN SUNDAY. FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO RESERVOIR
REGULATION ARE BEING SEEN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
:
RIVER STAGES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS.
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:
NEW YORK       2.0 -  4.5 INCH NEW YORK         BRONX
.                              RICHMOND         KINGS
.                              QUEENS           NASSAU
.                              NWRN SUFFOLK     NERN SUFFOLK
.                              SWRN SUFFOLK     SERN SUFFOLK
VERMONT        2.7 -  3.9 INCH LAMOILLE         ERN CHITTENDEN
NEW HAMPSHIRE  3.1 -  4.4 INCH NRN COOS
MAINE          2.6 -  4.5 INCH NERN AROOSTOOK
CONNECTICUT    2.0 -  4.0 INCH SRN FAIRFIELD    SRN NEW HAVEN
MASSACHUSETTS  3.2 -  4.5 INCH SRN WORCESTER
RHODE ISLAND   3.2 -  4.5 INCH SERN PROVIDENCE

$$
:
NERFC: NORM BINGHAM/JEFF OUELLET