000
AGUS71 KTAR 071733
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
16Z (11 AM EST) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO
SLIP EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PASS EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND NEW YORK STATE. THIS FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SO WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN
ALTHOUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER WITH CANADA SOME SNOW
COULD BE MIXED IN.
:
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF IT SO WE EXPECT VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE NERFC SERVICE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A MORE MEANINGFUL
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

:
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
:
DURING THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM EST THIS SATURDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WAS ISOLATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NEW YORK STATE. SOME RAINFALL ALSO OCCURRED
EARLY YESTERDAY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT WITH BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH BASIN AVERAGES OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE
.
:
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS:
:
RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND NEW YORK STATE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NOVEMBER. FLOWS ARE A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS
ACROSS SOME SPOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RIVER FLOWS ARE
ACTUALLY STARTING TO DROP TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NOW ACROSS PARTS
OF FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT.
:
RIVER LEVELS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MID-COASTAL AND CENTRAL MAINE WHERE SNOWMELT COULD CAUSE SOME
DIURNAL RISES OF LESS THAN 0.5 FEET OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:
NEW YORK       1.3 -  4.5 INCH OSWEGO
VERMONT        2.1 -  3.5 INCH ORLEANS          LAMOILLE
.                              WASHINGTON       ERN CHITTENDEN
NEW HAMPSHIRE  2.5 -  4.0 INCH CHESHIRE
MAINE          2.1 -  4.0 INCH CTR SOMERSET
CONNECTICUT    2.0 -  4.0 INCH SRN FAIRFIELD    SRN NEW HAVEN
MASSACHUSETTS  2.3 -  4.5 INCH WRN FRANKLIN
RHODE ISLAND   2.9 -  4.0 INCH SERN PROVIDENCE

$$
:
NERFC/HORWOOD