000
AGUS71 KTAR 201632
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS PRESENTLY PROCEEDING ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE
AREA, BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER BASIN
AND THE WESTERN MAINE RIVER BASINS.  BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0
INCHES.
:
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE
NEXT DAY.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
:
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
:
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF
NEW YORK STATE.  24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1-2 INCHES WERE SEEN
ACROSS THE STATE FROM BUFFALO TO ALBANY.  THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE
SEEN AT THESE LOCATIONS:
:
1.82 : WEST SENECA NY
1.80 : TANNERSVILLE NY
1.76 : BEARSVILLE NY
1.70 : WOODRIDGE NY
1.63 : WILLIAMSVILLE NY
1.60 : SLIDE MOUNTAIN NY
1.56 : ROCK HILL NY
1.50 : TROY NY
1.49 : LANCASTER NY
1.47 : BUFFALO NY
1.46 : PHOENICIA NY
:
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS:
:
SOME FORECAST LOCATIONS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND IN THE HUDSON
RIVER BASIN SAW SHARP RISES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS.  AS THE PRESENT SYSTEM PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION,
SIMILAR RISES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BASINS TO THE EAST, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BASINS.  NERFC FORECASTS SHOW THE HOOSIC
RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN, MA REACHING ABOVE ACTION STAGE.  HOWEVER,
NO FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:
NEW YORK       1.2 -  4.5 INCH OSWEGO           NRN SARATOGA
.                              SRN SARATOGA     NRN FULTON
.                              SRN ERIE
VERMONT        1.5 -  3.1 INCH LAMOILLE         ERN CHITTENDEN
NEW HAMPSHIRE  2.1 -  3.4 INCH CHESHIRE
MAINE          1.9 -  3.8 INCH CTR SOMERSET
CONNECTICUT    2.0 -  3.5 INCH SRN FAIRFIELD    SRN NEW HAVEN
.                              SRN MIDDLESEX
MASSACHUSETTS  1.9 -  4.5 INCH WRN FRANKLIN
RHODE ISLAND   2.4 -  4.2 INCH SERN PROVIDENCE

$$
:
NERFC/WKS