000
AGUS71 KTAR 081749
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1249 PM EST WED FEB 08 2012

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
15Z ( 10 AM EST ) WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS HELPING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL RIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND MAY BRING A SMALL ACCUMULATION TO AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION COULD APPROACH 0.10
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS NANTUCKET
ISLAND ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND SOUTH COAST.
:
OTHER THAN THAT...THE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP RIVERS RECEDING OR
REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THE TREND
TOWARDS COLDER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND MEANS WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL BASINS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
:
MANY USGS FLOW GAGES HAVE COME OUT OF ICE-AFFECTED STATUS,
SUBSEQUENT TO THE RAINFALL AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT CROSSED
THE REGION THIS PAST WEEK.  WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL BASINS, MORE ICE AFFECTING GAGES ARE ANTICIPATED
.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH WEB PAGE (HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.
GOV), STREAMFLOWS THROUGHOUT THE NERFC FORECAST REGION ARE
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN NORMAL AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAY PERIOD.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP.SHTML
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ED CAPONE