000
FXUS62 KTBW 100245
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
945 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.UPDATE...CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE STATE FROM THE
GULF GIVEN THE MOIST 700-500MB WESTERLY FLOW. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO
THE FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY NUDGE UP SKY COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TOMORROW THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE THE NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 



&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF 
THE GULF THIS EVENING THEN STRATUS DECK TO LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR 
CATEGORY AFTER AROUND 08Z THEN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG TO 
PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND 12Z THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  


&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW HAS DECREASED THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL
REMOVE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FROM THE CWF.
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KT RANGE. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  75  60  69 /  10  20  50  20 
FMY  63  80  64  74 /  10  30  50  30 
GIF  58  79  59  71 /  10  20  50  20 
SRQ  58  76  61  69 /  10  20  50  20 
BKV  52  77  53  68 /  10  10  50  10 
SPG  61  74  61  67 /  10  20  50  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...25/DAVIS