000 ACUS02 KWNS 281657 SWODY2 SPC AC 281655 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 $$