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FZUS81 KCLE 261010
ICEFBO

GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
509 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS.

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE POSITIVE PHASE.  A FEW OF THE
MODELS ARE LEANING IN THE NEGATIVE PHASE. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
WITH A FORECAST FOR POSITIVE PHASE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT
COUPLE WEEKS APPEAR THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES.
THIS TREND BODES WELL IN POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF ON ANY MAJOR ICE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR ABOUT
A WEEK OR SO.  THERE ARE REPORTS OF SOME ICE FORMING IN THE
PROTECTED WATER WAYS...BAYS AND HARBORS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS ALL A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD SPELL THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST TWO
WEEKS IN COMBINATION WITH ALREADY COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A 58 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO WILL DEVELOP AND LAST INTO
THE SPRING OF 2015.  THE LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
NEXT 3 MONTHS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LAKES REGION IS NOW IN AN EQUAL CHANCE
CATEGORY.  THIS MEANS THAT THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
A STRONG INDICATION OF WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE...
BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE LAKES.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET STREAM
WILL NOT BE TAKING ANY DEEP PLUNGES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.  THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE
OF A FAST MOVING FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES. SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL RACE EAST BETWEEN
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGES DURING THIS 10 DAY PERIOD. THIS
TREND SUGGESTS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD EXPERIENCE MILD CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WEAK TROUGHS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN NEAR NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS.

WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IN THE NORTH...WATER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WHEN NORMALS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RESPECTIVELY.
THE SOUTHERN WATERS HAD WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S WHEN NORMALS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  THE WATER
TEMPERATURES DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR
OUTBREAK OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS AND THE STORMINESS FACTOR
HELPING TO COOL THE LAKE SURFACES MUCH FASTER.

WATER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO WEEKS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE DECLINE SHOULD BE DECREASED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW WATER TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S IN THE PROTECTED BAYS AND HARBORS ON ALL OF THE LAKES. THIS
MEANS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME ICE BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
NEXT TWO WEEK PERIOD. KEY WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIN
ICE COVERAGE IN THE FORM OF FAST ICE ALONG THE SHORES OF THE 
WATERWAY. SIMILAR THIN ICE IS EXPECTED IN THE BAYS. THE WESTERN
BASIN OF LAKE ERIE COULD ALSO BEGIN TO SEE ICE DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ICE JAMMING TOOK PLACE ON THE CHAGRIN
RIVER ON LAKE ERIE THIS PAST WEEK DUE TO ICE DEVELOPMENT ON THE
RIVER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WINTER OF 2014-2015 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...
OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME 
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS
THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

DURING THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS...AN UNPRECEDENTED COLD AIR OUTBREAK
STRUCK THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. THE
FIRST WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER WAS THE RESULT OF
THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI THAT MOVED INTO THE BERING
SEA. THIS SYSTEM BECAME A STRONG STORM AND BASICALLY GAVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER A NUDGE AND SENT IT SLIDING SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SET UP A 
MASSIVE WAVE AFTER WAVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GREAT LAKES. RECORD SNOWFALLS FELL AS A RESULT OF THE COLD
AIR MASS OVER THE VERY WARM GREAT LAKES. 

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED BACK TOWARD A TREND TOWARD
MORE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
LAST WEEK.

FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR
OUTBREAK OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. FREEZING DEGREE DAY
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND IN SOME CASES HAVE RETREATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO A COUPLE DAYS
OF WARMER AIR IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES.

ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS--THE AMOUNT OF HEAT 
STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE 
REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR AIR AND HIGH WINDS.  LONG RANGE 
OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN 
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LAKES THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER SHORT PERIODS 
OF TIME.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
ISSUE THE ICE FORECASTS ON MONDAYS...WEDNESDAYS...AND FRIDAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ICE HAS BEGUN TO FORM ON THE LAKES.

IF THE ICE FORECASTS DO NOT BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT
FREEZE UP OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND DECEMBER 10TH.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE THE
BREAK UP OUTLOOK WHICH IS NORMALLY ISSUED IN THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH.

FREEZING DEGREE DAY TOTALS AS OF MID NOVEMBER IN THE LAST 9 YEARS:

                   2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006   

DULUTH              141    9   27    0  114    0  159   52    4
MARQUETTE           134    2   12    0   44    0  109   41    0
SAULT STE MARIE      95    0    0    0   11    0   65   23    0
ESCANABA             78    0    0    0    5    0   70   13    0
GREEN BAY            57    0    0    0   13    0   65    9    0
MILWAUKEE            49    0    0    0    0    0   21    0    0
CHICAGO              28    0    0    0    2    0    9    0    0     
MUSKEGON             89    0    0    0    0    0   15    0    0     
ALPENA               43    0    0    0    2    0   55   19    0     
DETROIT              41    0    0    0    0    0   16    2    0     
TOLEDO               20    0    0    0    0    0   32    5    0     
CLEVELAND            51    0    0    0    0    0   19    0    0     

HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS FOR MID NOVEMBER: 

                 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 NORM   

DULUTH            42   44   43   33   41   38   34   41   44   50   44
SAULT STE MARIE   39   48   41   44   47   45   35   46   45   50   47
CHICAGO           40   46   46   44   47   36   40   44   49   48   53
ALPENA            34   45   43   44   44   46   42   45   47   43   48
DETROIT           36   43   43   48   48   48   39   43   45   47   52
CLEVELAND         35   49   48   51   48   51   41   46   51   53   56
BUFFALO           39   46   48   52   48   50   40   45   46   50   54

WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS:

                 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004  

LAKE SUPERIOR
WEST              MM   42   37   34   42   44   41   41   44   43   45    
CENTRAL           MM   40   39   44   45   43   41   40   45   43   45  
EAST              MM   45   37   41   45   43   40   42   45   42   44  

LAKE MICHIGAN
  NORTH           42   47   36   35   48   47   44   47   42   MM   53  
  SOUTH           42   46   41   49   42   49   46   46   46   45   54  

LAKE HURON
  NORTH           42   43   46   47   45   47   43   45   45   44   49     
  SOUTH           43   46   48   40   48   49   46   47   46   50   54     

LAKE ERIE
  WEST            39   45   44   48   46   49   38   MM   46   49   56     
  CENTRAL         45   49   50   51   49   52   47   MM   50   52   57     
  EAST            43   50   50   46   48   51   49   MM   47   50   56     
 
$$

LOMBARDY