Model guidance indicates that an upper-level low is likely to move into the Southern Plains by Wednesday next week. Deep Gulf moisture will spread into the Southern Plains ahead of this low, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall. There remains some disagreement in timing and placement of the upper-level low, and thus the heavy rainfall. While it is too early to know exact amounts of rainfall, the latest data suggest that the primary threat towards the middle of next week would likely be heavy rainfall and flooding rather than severe thunderstorms. However, severe weather can rarely be ruled out with a springtime storm system. We will continue to refine the forecast details of this event over the coming days.