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Here's our latest thinking on storm timing Saturday evening into early Sunday AM. A few storms may occur to the west and northwest of the DFW Metroplex in the evening hours. These storms may be severe with a tornado and hail risk, but the primary hazard will be damaging winds. Thereafter, they will likely grow upscale into a line of storms, resulting in mostly a damaging wind threat. There will be an enhanced threat for brief spin-up tornadoes within the line, as well as with any storms that MAY develop ahead of the line. For midnight and beyond, most activity should be in the form of a squall line promoting a continued risk for damaging winds. Brief spin up tornadoes cannot be out as well as a threat for hail.
A threat for organized severe weather will occur Saturday evening through early Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Some of the storms may be severe producing damaging winds and hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Expect gusty northerly winds behind the front that will sweep through the Bowie to Breckenridge areas by midnight Saturday night and through the Palestine to Cameron areas by late Sunday morning.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid morning southeast of a Sulphur Springs to Temple line, followed by decreasing cloudiness. Elsewhere, skies will be mostly sunny. It will be breezy and cooler with highs will be in the 70s. Winds will be northerly at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts over 25 mph are likely through midday.
Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Friday east of a Bonham to Hearne line. Otherwise, we will have dry weather next week. Gusty north to northwest winds and drier air behind a cold front Tuesday will result in elevated fire weather concerns.
Here is some information on Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). Take time to review this information as we prepare for severe weather across the region!

 
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August 2011 Review - Waco

Waco Temperatures - August 2011    Waco - 1980 vs. 2011

  

August 2011 was the warmest month on record at Waco, besting the record set last month, July 2011.

 

Waco - August Temperatures

 

 

 

Highest Maximum
Rank Temperature Year
1 105.2 2011
2 101.7 1951
3
(tie)
101.4 2010
101.4 1999
101.4 1988
6 101.1 2006
7 100.7 1952
8 100.6 1910
9 100.5 1985
10 100.2 2000
Highest Average
Rank Temperature Year
1 92.9 2011
2 89.9 1951
3
(tie)
89.3 1924
89.3 1910
5 89.2 2010
6 88.9 1934
7
(tie)
88.8 2006
88.8 1999
88.8 1952
10
(tie)
88.2 1988
88.2 1982
88.2 1918
Highest Minimum
Rank Temperature Year
1 80.5 2011
2 79.7 1924
3 79.4 1934
4 78.1 1923
5
(tie)
78.0 1951
78.0 1918
78.0 1910
8 77.3 1925
9
(tie)
77.2 1932
77.2 1930
77.2 1922

  

This was the warmest summer on record for Waco.  The average minimum temperature was the warmest since the official observing site was moved from the city to the airport in 1940.

 

Waco - Summer Temperatures

 

 

 

Highest Maximum
Rank Temperature Year
1 102.7 2011
2 99.5 1980
3 99.4 1998
4
(tie)
98.7 2009
98.7 1934
6 98.6 1925
7
(tie)
98.5 1990
98.5 1969
98.5 1918
10 98.4 1977
Highest Average
Rank Temperature Year
1 90.5 2011
2 88.7 1925
3 88.6 1934
4 87.7 1918
5 87.6 1998
6 87.3 1980
7
(tie)
87.2 1977
87.2 1969
9
(tie)
87.0 2010
87.0 2009
87.0 1909
Highest Minimum
Rank Temperature Year
1 78.8 1925
2 78.4 1934
3 78.3 2011
4
(tie)
77.0 1924
77.0 1923
6 76.9 1918
7 76.8 1914
8 76.6 2010
9 76.3 1932
10 76.1 1922

  

The 100° day total shattered the record from 1980.  The streak of 44 days just topped 1980.

 

Waco - Greatest Annual and Consecutive 100° Days

 

 

Greatest Annual
Rank # of Days Year
1 79 2011*
2 63 1980
3 61 1998
4 58 1969
5 55 2009
6
(tie)
52 1990
52 1977
8 50 1925
9
(tie)
46 2006
46 1978

* through August 31

 

Greatest Consecutive
Rank # of Days Dates
1 44 Jun 30 - Aug 12, 2011
2 42 Jun 23 - Aug 3, 1980
3 30 Jun 27 - Jul 26, 1969
4 29 Jul 6 - Aug 3, 1998
5 26 Jul 29 - Aug 23, 1987
6 25 Jul 31 - Aug 24, 2010
7 24 Jul 22 - Aug 14, 1910
8 23 Aug 3-25, 1952
9
(tie)
20 Aug 8-27, 2006
20 Jul 2-21, 1978

 

  

Between June 30 and August 31, there was only one day during which the temperature failed to reach 100°.

 

Waco - Greatest 100° Days by Month

 

June
Rank # of Days Year
1
(tie)
17 2011
17 1998
3 15 1925
4
(tie)
14 2009
14 1902
6
(tie)
13 1990
13 1918
13 1911
9 10 1980
10
(tie)
9 1969
9 1905
July
Rank # of Days Year
1
(tie)
31 2011
31 1980
3 29 1969
4 28 1998
5 24 1978
6
(tie)
23 1925
23 1909
8 21 1954
9 20 2001
10
(tie)
19 2009
19 1977
19 1912
August
Rank # of Days Year
1 30 2011
2
(tie)
27 2010
27 2006
4 26 1951
5
(tie)
25 1999
25 1988
25 1987
8 24 1952
9
(tie)
22 1985
22 1982
22 1910

  

There were 24 days with record highs during the summer of 2011, 14 of which occurred in August.  Excluding 2011, the summer with the most current record highs is 1969 with 9 days.

 

Waco - Annual and Consecutive Days of 105° or More

 

Greatest Annual
Rank # of Days Year
1 29 2011*
2 12 1998
3 11 1969
4 10 1980
5 9 1951

* through August 31

Greatest Consecutive
Rank # of Days Dates
1
(tie)
6 Aug 15-20, 2011
6 Aug 1-6, 2011
6 Aug 31 - Sep 5, 2000
6 Aug 9-14, 1969
3
(tie)
5 Aug 26-30, 2011
5 Jul 30 - Aug 3, 1998
5 Jul 28 - Aug 1, 1986

 

 

The number of days with lows of 80° or more was the most at Waco since the observing site moved from the city to the airport in 1940.

 

Waco - Annual and Consecutive Days with Lows of 80° or More

 

Greatest Annual
Rank # of Days Year
1 50 1925
2 43 1934
3 40 2011*
4 38 1924
5 27 1918

* through August 31

Greatest Consecutive
Rank # of Days Dates
1
(tie)
15 Aug 12-26, 1934
15 Jul 16-30, 1925
3 14 Jul 28 - Aug 10, 1924
4
(tie)
10 Jun 28 - Jul 7, 1933
10 Aug 15-24, 1924
10 Jul 12-21, 1924

 

  

August 2 set two all-time records, the highest minimum temperature (86°) and the highest mean temperature (97.5°).  There were 7 days with low temperatures of 83° of higher.  There had been no such days since 1967.

 

Waco - Daily Temperatures

 

 

 

Highest Maximum
Rank Temperature Date
1 112 Aug 11, 1969
2
(tie)
111 Sep  4, 2000
111 Aug 11, 1936
4
(tie)
110 Aug 27, 2011
110 Aug 13, 1969
6
(tie)
109 Aug 28, 2011
109 Aug 2, 2011
109 July 12, 1998
109 Aug 31, 1990
109 Jun 27, 1980
109 Aug 12, 1969
109 Aug 10, 1969
109 Aug 18, 1909
Highest Average
Rank Temperature Date
1 97.5 Aug 2, 2011
2 96.5 Aug 11, 1969
3 96.0 Aug 13, 1969
4
(tie)
95.5 Aug 3, 2011
95.5 Jul 12, 1933
95.5 Jul 18, 1925
7
(tie)
95.0 Aug 29, 2011
95.0 Aug 20, 2011
95.0 Aug 4, 2011
95.0 Aug 10, 1969
Highest Minimum
Rank Temperature Date
1 86 Aug 2, 2011
2 85 Jul 18, 1925
3
(tie)
84 Aug 29, 2011
84 Jul 12, 1933
84 Aug 20, 1930
84 Jul 28, 1925
5
(tie)
83 Aug 30, 2011
83 Aug 23, 2011
83 Aug 20, 2011
83 Aug 3, 2011
83 Jul 26, 2011
83 Jul 31, 1967
83 Jul 31, 1966
83 Jul 22, 1966
83 Aug 6, 1951

 

Precipitation deficits continue to mount across Waco after the 5th driest summer on record.  There were only two days during July and August with measurable rainfall at Waco Regional Airport.

 

Waco - Precipitation

 

  

August - Driest
Rank Precipitation Year
1 0.00 1902
2
(tie)
T 1999
T 1952
T 1929
T 1924
T 1910
7 0.01 2009
8 0.03 1936
9 0.05 2000
10 0.06 2006
11 0.08 2011

 

Summer - Driest

Rank Precipitation Year
1 0.51 1980
2 0.85 1956
3 0.93 1924
4 1.33 1954
5 1.43 2011
6 1.58 1965
7
(tie)
1.87 1952
1.87 1918
9 1.96 1998
10 2.02 1917
 

 

ASOS Precipitation
Location August Summer (June-August) October 2010 - August 2011

Precipitation

Departure
from Normal
Precipitation Departure
from Normal
Percent
of Normal
Precipitation Departure
from Normal

Percent
of Normal

Waco 0.08 -1.97 1.43 -5.84 20 13.92 -17.71 44
DFW Airport 0.96 -0.95 3.89 -3.97 49 21.60 -11.99 64
Dallas Love Field 0.93 -0.94 4.63 -3.56 57 22.86 -11.87 66
Fort Worth Meacham 0.92 -0.92 3.61 -5.78 38 16.86 -17.01 50
Dallas Executive 0.50 -3.07 2.67 -7.54 26 18.20 -19.49 48
Fort Worth Alliance 1.36 -1.15 3.36 -5.96 36 17.63 -16.85 51
Arlington 0.38 -1.59 1.30 -7.24 15 18.17 -16.37 53
Denton 1.75 -0.02 4.30 -4.35 50 20.81 -14.72 59
McKinney 0.32 -1.63 1.72 -6.47 21 20.00 -16.92 54
Terrell 0.25 -1.87 4.02 -4.90 45 25.57 -12.53 67
Corsicana 0.05 -2.06 4.53 -3.87 54 21.58 -15.96 57
Mineral Wells 2.00 -0.24 2.49 -5.90 30 11.20 -18.03 38