National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Unsettled Across the West; Increasingly Rainy with a Few Storms in the South

A frontal system will bring heavy precipitation, including mountain snowfall to much of the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Rockies through Tuesday. Elsewhere, wet weather will return to much of the South with locally heavy rainfall; a few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible in this region by Tuesday. Read More >

A Dense Fog Advisory continues through 1:00 PM this afternoon for areas generally south of Interstate 20, and west of Interstate 45. Areas of dense fog continue to reduce visibility to below one- quarter mile in these areas. If driving, make sure to slow down, use low-beam headlights, and leave extra space between you and the car ahead of you.
Fog and drizzle will be in store today, but the thickest fog will gradually diminish through the morning hours. An approaching storm system will then bring some low chances for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the southeastern portions of our area later this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures won't cool all that much tonight as clouds and showers will be present across the region. Lows will generally be in the 50s area-wide. Precipitation chances will gradually increase through the night as a storm system approaches from the west.
A strong storm system will approach the region tonight, spreading additional shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. The highest precipitation chances will occur Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening before much drier air quickly moves in later Tuesday evening and overnight. In addition to some heavy rainfall which may lead to some localized flooding, some storms could be strong to marginally severe south and east of a Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Paris line. Hail to near the size of quarters and gusty winds would be the main threats, in addition to cloud-to-ground lightning.
The outlook from Wednesday through Friday calls for a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday followed by a sharp cool down on Friday behind a strong cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the front Thursday night through Friday.
Forecast models are showing cold air arriving next week around December 22nd and 23rd (on average). What we do not know for sure yet is exactly when the cold air arrives, how cold temperatures will be, and if there will be any precipitation and what kind. We will be providing updates when/as we acquire better confidence in the late week forecast.

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Automatically generated image showing areas of convective inhibition.


Thumbnail of automatically generated image showing areas of convective inhibition. Thumbnail of automatically generated image showing areas of convective inhibition. Thumbnail of automatically generated image showing areas of convective inhibition.
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4 Panel Display | Animated Loop


The image is a surface based measurement of Convective INhibition (CIN) or what is sometimes more commonly referred to as the strength of the cap.  The value is capped off at 500 J/KG.  In cases where there is no surface based CAPE available this parameter is set to 500 J/KG.

The yellow contours are the Lid Strength Index (LSI).  This is another measure of how strong the cap is.  It shows the thermal difference between a lifted surface parcel and the warmest part of the cap.  Higher values indicate a more stable layer.

In general, the Cap is said to be breakable when CIN is 30 J/Kg or less and/or the LSI is 2 degrees or less.  A negative LSI is rare, but is indicative of freely buoyant low level instability.

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