National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move north across locations mainly along and east of Interstate 35 today. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the 70s and winds of 5-15 mph with slightly higher gusts.
There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A few scattered storms Saturday afternoon may become strong to marginally severe. The better threat for organized severe weather will be Saturday night through early Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Some of the storms may be severe producing damaging downburst winds and large hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out with storms that develop ahead of the front. Cloud to ground lightning will accompany any of the storms and locally heavy rain could result in some flooding.
Rich Gulf moisture will continue pouring into North and Central Texas into the weekend. Saturday will begin with cloudy skies, but the sun will emerge as the day progresses, particularly west of the I-35 corridor. A capping inversion may prevent thunderstorm development, but with considerable instability, any storm that develops may quickly become severe. More widespread storms are expected Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with the line of storms that accompanies the front, but large hail and tornadoes will be possible with any discrete cells. A brief tornado could also occur within the line, but since these nocturnal spin-ups are often obscured by rain, they would be difficult for spotters to observe. The severe weather threat will diminish early Sunday morning as the storms move into Central and East Texas. Skies will clear on Sunday, and temperatures will reach the 70s Sunday afternoon with lower humidity. However, the gusty north winds behind the front will make it feel cooler.
Pleasant autumn weather will prevail next week with clear skies and low humidity. Another cold front will arrive Monday night, but high temperatures will generally be in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

 
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Automatically generated image showing areas of the convective interest parameter.

 

Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the convective interest parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the convective interest parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the convective interest parameter.
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Convective Interest

This is a highly experimental index which attempts to show areas where surface based convection is favorable or may initiate within the next hour.  The index uses a combination of several fields, (CAPE, CIN, low level lapse rates, moisture convergence, satellite, and most unstable LI) to develop a number between -100 and 100.  Negative values are indicative of an environment not supportive of surface based convection.  The higher the value, the more favorable the environment is for surface based convection.  Values greater than 70 are suggestive that convective initiation will likely occur within the next hour in that region.  This index works best in regimes of airmass (or pulse) convection or on days where the cap is the primary inhibiting factor for convection.

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