National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Stormy Weather in the Northwest; Fire Weather Threat Redeveloping in Southern California this Weekend

An active fall storm pattern in the Pacific Northwest is bringing heavy rain and high elevation snow to the region which will persist through this weekend. Strong winds associated with this system will bring a renewed period of critical fire weather to southern California later this weekend into next week. Read More >

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move north across locations mainly along and east of Interstate 35 today (Friday). Rainfall totals will range up to around half an inch with the highest totals east of Interstate 35. A strong or marginally severe storm is possible producing damaging winds and hail. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the 70s and winds of 5-15 mph with slightly higher gusts.
Rich Gulf moisture will continue pouring into North and Central Texas into the weekend. Saturday will begin with cloudy skies, but the sun will emerge as the day progresses, particularly west of the I-35 corridor. A capping inversion may prevent thunderstorm development, but with considerable instability, any storm that develops may quickly become severe. More widespread storms are expected Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with the line of storms that accompanies the front, but large hail and tornadoes will be possible with any discrete cells. A brief tornado could also occur within the line, but since these nocturnal spin-ups are often obscured by rain, they would be difficult for spotters to observe. The severe weather threat will diminish early Sunday morning as the storms move into Central and East Texas. Skies will clear on Sunday, and temperatures will reach the 70s Sunday afternoon with lower humidity. However, the gusty north winds behind the front will make it feel cooler.
Pleasant autumn weather will prevail next week with clear skies and low humidity. Another cold front will arrive Monday night, but high temperatures will generally be in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

 
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Automatically generated image showing areas of 0-3 km storm relative helicity.

 

Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of 0-3 km storm relative helicity. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of 0-3 km storm relative helicity. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of 0-3 km storm relative helicity.
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Helicity (0-3 Km) 

This is the 0-3 km (0-10,000 Ft. AGL) storm relative helicity which is a measure of the amount of wind shear available from the ground to roughly 700 MB.   Values greater than 250 m**2/s**2 suggest an increased threat of tornadoes, but high values with this index do not necessarily suggest that the environment is supportive of supercell structures (look at 0-6 km shear).  Larger values are generally better, but there are no clear "boundaries" between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.  Negative values suggest that anti-cylonic (left moving) supercells will dominate.

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