National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Stormy Weather in the Northwest; Fire Weather Threat Redeveloping in Southern California this Weekend

An active fall storm pattern in the Pacific Northwest is bringing heavy rain and high elevation snow to the region which will persist through this weekend. Strong winds associated with this system will bring a renewed period of critical fire weather to southern California later this weekend into next week. Read More >

Partly cloudy and a little warmer tonight. A few showers or storms will be possible across the southern half of the forecast area as abundant Gulf moisture moves in. Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, winds should be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH.
It will be mostly cloudy Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds will be southerly at 10 to 20 mph.
Expect mostly cloudy skies Friday night with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain will be main threats from any thunderstorms. Most of this activity is expected to dissipate by midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday as an upper level trough and a cold front approach. The best storm chances will begin Saturday afternoon mainly east of I-35, but will increase area-wide Saturday evening and overnight as the front moves in. The best potential for severe weather will be Saturday afternoon and evening, for areas mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Large hail and damaging wind would be the primary severe threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
With the strong possibility of severe weather across the area late Saturday through early Sunday, this is a good time to review your severe weather terminology.
There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday. A few storms Saturday afternoon may become strong to marginally severe. The better threat for organized severe weather will be Saturday evening through early Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Some of the storms may be severe producing damaging downburst winds and large hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out with storms that develop ahead of the front. Cloud to ground lightning will accompany any of the storms and locally heavy rain could result in some flooding. Expect gusty northerly winds behind the front that will sweep through the Bowie to Breckenridge areas by midnight Saturday night and through the Palestine to Cameron areas by late Sunday morning.
Looking ahead into early next week, nice Fall weather across the area. Another cold front will arrive, but this time it will bring dry and seasonably conditions. In general, high temperatures will stay in the low to mid 70s and the overnight lows will drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning.

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Automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter.


Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter.
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Significant Tornado (SigTor) 

A composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind shear, 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, surface based CAPE, surface parcel CIN, and surface parcel LCL height. Values greater than 1 are indicative of increased potential of significant tornadoes.

The contours are the Lifted Condensation Level or LCL.  A lower LCL typically increases tornadic risk because it is indicative of air parcel acceleration occurring closer to the surface. 


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