National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1609 UTC 4 March 2008
SPC AC 041609
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND
   SOUTHEAST VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
   UNITED STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
   STATES TODAY...AND OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION
   TONIGHT.  DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG WIND
   FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE STORMS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA TODAY FROM EASTERN GA TO
   THE CAROLINA COAST.
   
   A LARGE SHIELD OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
   VA INTO MUCH OF GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH
   LOW LEVEL JET AND IN REGION OF VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION.  WHILE
   THIS ACTIVITY IS LIMITING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...MODELS SUGGEST
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND TO
   INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NC INTO EASTERN GA. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A
   RISK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
   EASTWARD AFTER DARK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.
   
   THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTHWARD
   INTO CENTRAL AL.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING
   AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ZONE OF AT LEAST
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  JUXTAPOSITION OF 100+ KNOT MID
   LEVEL JET MAX AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
   EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN GA...BECOMING MERGED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
   ACTIVITY BY EVENING.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT
   WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO/WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS
   ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND RACE ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   ..HART/SCHNEIDER.. 03/04/2008
   
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