National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1956 UTC 4 March 2008
SPC AC 041956
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA...SC...NC
   AND SRN VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
   SEABOARD...SRN APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA...
   
   ...CAROLINAS/ERN GA/SRN VA...
   A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
   ERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH AN EJECTING 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
   CREATE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
   SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE
   KY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A LARGE
   LINEAR MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS VA...THE CAROLINAS AND
   GA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY
   STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS
   NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CHARLESTON SC AND
   FAYETTEVILLE NC THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM
   AROUND 40 KT AT 19Z TO ABOUT 55 KT BY 23Z SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL
   THREAT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE
   THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR JUST EAST OF THE SQUALL-LINE. SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME STRONG FROM THE ERN
   RIDGES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
   COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SC. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH 00Z AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
   NEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. FURTHER WEST...VERY STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN GA NWD ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AS A
   SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ATHENS GA NWD TO NEAR
   CHARLOTTE NC BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 55 TO 65 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM. THE
   VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT WITH THE SQUALL-LINE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS THE SQUALL-LINE
   ADVANCES EWD AND REACHES THE ERN CAROLINAS BY LATE EVENING. A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS IN THE
   SQUALL-LINE.
   
   ...GA/FL...
   FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN GA AND FL...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL NOT
   BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS NNEWD AWAY FROM
   THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS AREAS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
   HOWEVER...THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 55 KT OVER THE NEXT
   1-3 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG
   FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2008
   
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