Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, a few tornadoes and some hail are expected across much of Arkansas and southern Missouri Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind are also expected across Illinois during the day and across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. Heavy rain with localized flooding is also possible in these areas. Read More >
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL GA INTO FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96... VALID 041930Z - 042100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES. DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN GRADUAL. BUT...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...WITH STEADY FURTHER STRENGTHENING LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND...VWP DATA FROM AREA RADARS INDICATE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 1000 FEET AGL. EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DRYING TO ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 21-22Z. ..KERR.. 03/04/2008 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...