National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1952 UTC
  
SPC AC 131952
   
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   
0152 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
  

 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
   
   

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
   
PFN 40 WNW ABY 35 ENE CSG 35 SSW AHN AGS 25 SE SAV 35 SSW SGJ 40 WSW
   
PIE.
   
   
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
   
PNS 35 SSW CSG 35 E RMG PSK SHD HGR 25 NNW TTN 50 ESE NEL.
   
   
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MSS ALB 60 ENE
  
 HYA ...CONT... 55 SSW PNS BHM BWG 30 WSW BMG VPZ GRR 65 NE BAX.
   
   
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
   
30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.
   
   

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS A
   LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN GA AND NRN FL....
   
  
 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
   
   ....EASTERN STATES...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET
   STREAK IS DEVELOPING/DIGGING UPSTREAM OF BASE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE
   SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SOUTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN
   INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.
   
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING STILL LAGGING TO THE
   WEST OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   CONCERNING POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CAROLINAS
   NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  HOWEVER...
   DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
   SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH INCREASINGLY
   STRONG AND DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
   SQUALL LINE.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
   LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   FATHER NORTH...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
   THROUGH THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING...
   INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. 
   THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING LIKLIHOOD OF INLAND ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE.  A LARGE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BEFORE SPREADING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
   LATER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 40 TO 50 KT MEAN
   ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/13/2006