National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1229 UTC 19 April 2008
SPC AC 191229
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008
   
   VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
   IL...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO
   PARTS OF TN/CAROLINAS/GEORGIA.  A BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION
   STRETCHES FROM EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY INTO
   SOUTHERN GA.  THIS BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH
   THE MORNING.  MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES WEST OF THIS
   PRECIPITATION AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT
   OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO
   EXCEED 500 J/KG.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
   AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
   STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS
   OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   COAST.  LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED
   TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..HART/GRAMS.. 04/19/2008
   
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