DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 935 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2008 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... SYNOPSIS... VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...AND THIS HAS CAUSED DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CENTRE TO HEFLIN TO ROCK MILLS TO LANETTE. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR HAMILTON TO MOUNDVILLE TO MONTGOMERY TO EUFAULA. MOST REMAINING AREAS IN WEST ALABAMA ARE NOW ABNORMALLY DRY. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES: 1) ABNORMALLY DRY 2) MODERATE 3) SEVERE 4) EXTREME 5) EXCEPTIONAL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... SOCIAL IMPACTS... AREA RESERVOIRS ARE NOW FALLING DUE TO NORMAL LOWERING THAT OCCURS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF MUNICIPAL WATER SHORTAGES HAS EASED AS WE HEAD INTO FALL AND COOLER WEATHER. STRESS HAS ALSO INCREASED SOMEWHAT ON LAWNS AND SHRUBBERY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE CURRENT DRIER CONDITIONS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
TOP SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE DECLINED FOLLOWING THE RECENT DRY WEATHER. FORTY FOUR PERCENT OF TOP SOILS ARE NOW INDICATED AS BEING SHORT TO VERY SHORT. SUB SOIL MOISTURES ALSO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DEFICITS AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RECOVER FROM THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE USDA STATES THAT THE CONDITION OF SOME ROW CROPS REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR OR BETTER...EVEN THOUGH PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. THE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE USDA: CROP % POOR OR WORSE % FAIR OR BETTER COTTON 15% 85% PEANUT 2% 98% SOYBEAN 23% 77% LIVESTOCK 12% 88% PASTURE 21% 79% FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 690...WITH VERY LOCALIZED LOWER VALUES. VALUES ABOVE 500 INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER. THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT...BUT THE STATE FORESTER IS URGING ANYONE DOING OUTSIDE BURNING TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER. CLIMATE SUMMARY... NO RAINFALL OF SIGNIFICANCE OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. FOR THE YEAR...RAINFALL IS AVERAGING FROM THIRTY FOUR TO FORTY NINE INCHES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FOUND IN WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER AVERAGES BETWEEN TWO AND ONE HALF TO THREE AND ONE HALF INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ALTHOUGH READINGS IN THE 70S OCCURRED YESTERDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH OCTOBER 1ST: BIRMINGHAM 44.26 MONTGOMERY 39.64 ANNISTON 38.69 TUSCALOOSA 33.85 CALERA 49.02 TROY 36.43 AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH OCTOBER 1ST: BIRMINGHAM 41.78 UP 2.48 MONTGOMERY 42.80 DOWN 3.16 ANNISTON 40.85 DOWN 2.16 TUSCALOOSA 44.07 DOWN 10.22 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF DRY WEATHER WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER AND MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK...FROM OCTOBER 9TH THROUGH OCTOBER 15TH... CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXCLUDING THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... MOST STREAM FLOWS REPORTED BY USGS GAGES HAVE DECLINED TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. PERIODIC RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED IF STREAM FLOWS ARE TO RETURN TO AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. MOST RESERVOIRS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL...PARTLY DUE TO LOWERING THAT NORMALLY OCCURS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS WELL AS THE LACK OF RAINFALL. LISTED BELOW ARE TODAY'S LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LEVELS FROM SEPTEMBER 25TH: RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR 10/02/2008 LEVEL FOR 09/25/2008 WEISS 561.8 562.0 NEELY HENRY 507.0 507.1 LOGAN MARTIN 463.3 464.5 LAY 395.8 395.6 MITCHELL 311.5 311.6 JORDAN 251.5 251.4 R.L. HARRIS 788.6 789.3 MARTIN 487.0 487.6 SMITH 497.6 498.2 BANKHEAD 254.6 254.7 HOLT 186.2 186.1 ...UPDATE STATEMENT... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND OCTOBER 9TH...OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
OUR LOCAL WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
U.S.G.S. WEB PAGE...
http://water.usgs.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... SOME OF THE INFORMATION USED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE ALABAMA STATE FORESTRY COMMISSION...AND ALABAMA POWER COMPANY. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 465 WEATHERVANE ROAD CALERA AL 35040-5427 PHONE: 205-664-3010 E-MAIL: SR-BMX.webmaster@noaa.gov